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Revisiting real exchange rate volatility: non-traded goods and cointegrated TFP shocks

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  • Aydan Dogan
  • Timo Bettendorf

Abstract

International real business cycle (IRBC) models predict a real exchange rate volatility that is much lower than the levels observed in the data. In this paper, we build a two-country IRBC model with both a traded and a non-traded goods sector, and calibrate it to UK-euro area (EA) data. We provide evidence on the existence of a cointegrating relationship between UK and EA traded sector total factor productivity (TFP) by estimating a vector error correction model (VECM). To account for this relationship, we incorporate non-stationary technology shocks in the traded sectors in our model, and show that then the model is able to match the observed volatility of the UK–EA real exchange rate. Our analysis points out that both the presence of non-traded sectors and non-stationary technology shocks are necessary to account for the observed volatility in the real exchange rate.

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  • Aydan Dogan & Timo Bettendorf, 2020. "Revisiting real exchange rate volatility: non-traded goods and cointegrated TFP shocks," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(1), pages 80-100.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:72:y:2020:i:1:p:80-100.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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