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Socially efficient detection of terror plots

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  • Edward H. Kaplan

Abstract

How many good guys are needed to find the bad guys? To answer this question, a staffing model is developed to determine the number of agents required to detect a specified fraction of terror attacks assuming that the hazard functions governing attack and plot detection are proportional. Given estimates of the benefit of preventing a terror attack and the cost of counterterror agents, the staffing model can be employed to determine both the socially efficient terror plot detection level and the implied number of counterterror agents. A game-theoretic version of the model emerges if strategic terrorists select their attack rate presuming that the state will respond optimally. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate potential applications using empirical estimates of the benefit of preventing attacks and the cost of counterterror agents.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward H. Kaplan, 2015. "Socially efficient detection of terror plots," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 104-115.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:67:y:2015:i:1:p:104-115.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpu034
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    Cited by:

    1. Ebrahimnejad, Sadoullah & khanbaba, Amirhossein & Samimi, Sina, 2021. "Development of an Input-Output Model Considering Simultaneous Effect of Risks in Infrastructure under Dynamic Conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    2. Seidl, Andrea & Kaplan, Edward H. & Caulkins, Jonathan P. & Wrzaczek, Stefan & Feichtinger, Gustav, 2016. "Optimal control of a terror queue," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(1), pages 246-256.
    3. Daniel G. Arce, 2019. "On the human consequences of terrorism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 178(3), pages 371-396, March.
    4. Stefan Wrzaczek & Edward H. Kaplan & Jonathan P. Caulkins & Andrea Seidl & Gustav Feichtinger, 2017. "Differential Terror Queue Games," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 578-593, December.

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