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Uncertainty and monetary policy

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  • Sheila C. Dow

Abstract

The experience of monetary policy making in an uncertain environment has encouraged increased attention to the concept of model uncertainty, that is, uncertainty as to which is the best model. A particular difficulty has been the need to operationalise the concept in order to yield definitive policy recommendations. If this type of uncertainty is unquantifiable, then a policy rule determined by a single model may not in fact be the best approach; pluralism of method and the exercise of judgement offer a potential solution. A rigorous foundation for such an approach is available in Keynes's philosophical analysis of decision making under uncertainty. It is concluded that more analytical attention needs to be devoted to agents' own model uncertainty, and to judgement. But ultimately the scope for synthesis between the model uncertainty and Keynes uncertainty approaches rests on whether or not the subject matter is such that knowledge of it is best represented by one formal model. Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheila C. Dow, 2004. "Uncertainty and monetary policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(3), pages 539-561, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:56:y:2004:i:3:p:539-561
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpf052
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    Cited by:

    1. Sheila C. Dow, 2012. "Variety of Methodological Approach in Economics," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Foundations for New Economic Thinking, chapter 13, pages 210-230, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Francesca Rondina, 2010. "Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 855.10, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    3. Charemza, Wojciech & Ladley, Daniel, 2016. "Central banks’ forecasts and their bias: Evidence, effects and explanation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 804-817.
    4. Sheila Dow, 2012. "Uncertainty-Denial," Department Discussion Papers 1204, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    5. Giuseppe Fontana & Bill Gerrard, 2006. "The future of Post Keynesian economics," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 59(236), pages 49-80.
    6. Sheila Dow & Matthias Klaes & Alberto Montagnoli, 2009. "Risk And Uncertainty In Central Bank Signals: An Analysis Of Monetary Policy Committee Minutes," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 584-618, November.
    7. Pedro Costa Ferreira & Raíra Marotta B. Vieira & Felipi Bruno Silva & Ingrid C. L. Oliveira, 2019. "Measuring Brazilian Economic Uncertainty," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(1), pages 25-40, April.
    8. Havvanur Feyza Erdem & George Tawadros, 2020. "Estimating An Optimal Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index For Australia," Working Papers 2020-02, DePauw University, School of Business and Leadership and Department of Economics and Management.
    9. Tomáš Otáhal, 2012. "Ekonomická historie: čím přispívá historický příklad k pochopení ekonomických jevů? [Economic History: What Are the Contributions of Historical Example to Understanding of Economic Phenomena?]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(5), pages 679-693.
    10. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Ricardo Macedo, 2008. "Challenges on Inflation Targeting," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807111431320, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    11. Paul Downward & Andrew Mearman, 2008. "Decision-making at the Bank of England: a critical appraisal," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 385-409, July.
    12. Finn Olesen, 2010. "Uncertainty, bounded rationality and post-Keynesian Macroeconomics," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 109-124.
    13. Giuseppe Fontana & Alfonso Palacio‐Vera, 2007. "Are Long‐Run Price Stability And Short‐Run Output Stabilization All That Monetary Policy Can Aim For?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 269-298, May.
    14. Sheila Dow & Guðrún Johnsen & Alberto Montagnoli, 2015. "A critique of full reserve banking," Working Papers 2015008, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
    • B5 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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