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On the Economic Consequences of Civil War

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  • Colier, Paul

Abstract

A model of the economic effects of civil war and the postwar period is developed. A key feature is the adjustment of the capital stock through capital flight. Postwar this flight can either be reversed or continue, depending partly upon how far the capital stock has adjusted to the war. The model is tested on data for all civil wars since 1960. After long civil wars, the economy recovers rapidly, whereas after short wars it continues to decline. The author then considers the effect on the composition of economic activity, distinguishing between war-vulnerable and war-safe activities. Evidence for Uganda shows such compositional effects to be substantial. Copyright 1999 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Colier, Paul, 1999. "On the Economic Consequences of Civil War," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 168-183, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:51:y:1999:i:1:p:168-83
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    Cited by:

    1. Karol Sorby, jr, 2022. "Ḥāfiẓ Al-Asad Becoming The Strongman Of Syria, 1970 – 1973," Almanach (Actual Issues in World Economics and Politics), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 17(2), pages 34-47.
    2. Galdo Virgilio & Acevedo Gladys Lopez & Rama Martin, 2021. "Conflict and the composition of economic activity in Afghanistan," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, January.
    3. Philip R. Lane, 2003. "The International Community and the CIS-7," Trinity Economics Papers 20033, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    4. Rastislav Solej, 2022. "The Impact Of Socio-Political Factors On The Economy And The Exchange Rate: Case Study From The Middle East And North Africa Region," Almanach (Actual Issues in World Economics and Politics), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 17(2), pages 23-33.
    5. Dagmar Sulejmani, 2022. "Agenda 2030 In The Works Of Selected Foreign Authors," Almanach (Actual Issues in World Economics and Politics), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 17(2), pages 48-55.
    6. Zhang, Xiaobo, 2004. "Security Is Like Oxygen: Evidence From Uganda," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20384, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Patrik Kozár, 2022. "Key Skills And Competences Of Managers In The Context Of An International Work Environment," Almanach (Actual Issues in World Economics and Politics), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 17(2), pages 14-22.

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