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WTO Dispute Settlement Post 2019: What to Expect?

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  • Joost Pauwelyn

Abstract

What does the imminent demise of the WTO Appellate Body (AB) mean for the settlement of ongoing and future trade disputes? This editorial discusses two ‘unlikely solutions’, at least in the short term: the US lifts its veto on AB appointments; a WTO organ unlocks the impasse. Appeals pending on 10 December 2019 will most likely be carried-over pursuant to (contested) Rule 15 of the AB Working Procedures. For panel reports released after that date, four main scenarios emerge: (i) appeals ‘into the void’ blocking the panel report, (ii) no appeal ex post, or ex ante no appeal pacts, (iii) Article 25 appeal arbitration, (iv) ‘floating’ panel reports (interim or final), neither adopted, nor appealed/blocked. The transformation from GATT to WTO took half a century. Regular veto rights in the settlement of trade disputes may be back in a matter of months. It is one thing to lose the AB, quite another to return to pre-WTO dispute settlement where panel outcomes are not automatically binding and power relations play a considerably greater role. At the same time, it would be wrong to equate a (temporary?) return to GATT-style dispute settlement with the collapse of a rules-based WTO system.

Suggested Citation

  • Joost Pauwelyn, 2019. "WTO Dispute Settlement Post 2019: What to Expect?," Journal of International Economic Law, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 297-321.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jieclw:v:22:y:2019:i:3:p:297-321.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jiel/jgz024
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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Weiß, 2023. "The EU's strategic autonomy in times of politicisation of international trade: The future of commission accountability," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 14(S3), pages 54-64, July.
    2. Johann Robert Basedow, 2022. "Why de‐judicialize? Explaining state preferences on judicialization in World Trade Organization Dispute Settlement Body and Investor‐to‐State Dispute Settlement reforms," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 1362-1381, October.
    3. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Herrmann, Christoph, 2020. "Trade conflicts with side effects: Compensation for innocent bystanders when imposing punitive tariffs," Studien, Stiftung Familienunternehmen / Foundation for Family Businesses, number 250008.
    4. Ian M. Sheldon, 2022. "The United States' power‐based bargaining and the WTO: Has anything really been gained?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(3), pages 1424-1439, September.
    5. Sheldon, Ian & Chow, Daniel C.K., 2024. "The Future of Dispute Resolution in International (Agricultural) Trade," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 345095, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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