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Liberalisation and Producer Price Risk: Examining Subjective Expectations in the Ugandan Coffee Market

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  • Ruth Vargas Hill

Abstract

The transfer of marketing responsibilities from the state to private agents in developing country commodity markets has enhanced competitiveness in these markets. One consequence of this has been an increase in the extent to which fluctuations in international commodity prices are passed from exporters to domestic traders, and to producers. This paper presents unique data on farmer perceptions of coffee price risk in Uganda's post-liberalised market. Perceived price risk is found to be substantial, as expected. Less expectedly, perceived price risk is found to vary quite substantially across households. An analysis of this variance suggests that differences in coffee prices received in past seasons and the salience of particular prices explain a significant portion of this variation. Interventions that both provide market information and train farmers to better understand price determination would seem desirable. Copyright 2010 The author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for the Study of African Economies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruth Vargas Hill, 2010. "Liberalisation and Producer Price Risk: Examining Subjective Expectations in the Ugandan Coffee Market," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 19(4), pages 433-458, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:19:y:2010:i:4:p:433-458
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Thiagu Ranganathan & Sarthak Gaurav & Ashish Singh, 2016. "Demand for Price Insurance among Farmers in India: A Choice Experiment-based Approach," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 10(2), pages 198-224, May.
    2. Albuquerque, Rui & de Araujo, Bruno & Brandao-Marques, Luis & Mosse, Gerivasia & de Vletter, Pippy & Zavale, Helder, 2024. "Market timing, farmer expectations, and liquidity constraints," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    3. Barrett, Christopher B. & Santos, Paulo, 2014. "The impact of changing rainfall variability on resource-dependent wealth dynamics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 48-54.
    4. Latynskiy, Evgeny & Berger, Thomas, 2016. "Networks of Rural Producer Organizations in Uganda: What Can be Done to Make Them Work Better?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 572-586.
    5. McKenzie, David & Gibson, John & Stillman, Steven, 2013. "A land of milk and honey with streets paved with gold: Do emigrants have over-optimistic expectations about incomes abroad?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 116-127.
    6. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Gassner, Anja & Musshoff, Oliver, 2018. "Experimental insights on the investment behavior of small-scale coffee farmers in central Uganda under risk and uncertainty," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 31-44.
    7. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Investment Behavior of Ugandan Smallholder Farmers: An Experimental Analysis," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 154775, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    8. Markus Eyting & Patrick Schmidt, 2019. "Belief Elicitation with Multiple Point Predictions," Working Papers 1818, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 16 Nov 2020.
    9. Ahmed, Mohamed M. & Balie, Jean, 2016. "Why is it important to measure the Market Development Gap? An application to the agricultural sector of Uganda," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246446, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    10. Eyting, Markus & Schmidt, Patrick, 2021. "Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    11. Depetris Chauvin, Nicolas & Porto, Guido G., 2011. "Market Competition in Export Cash Crops and Farm Income," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126159, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Lodovico Muratori, 2016. "Price Gap along the Ugandan Coffee Value Chain," Working Papers 1/16, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    13. Evgeny Latynskiy & Thomas Berger, 2017. "Assessing the Income Effects of Group Certification for Smallholder Coffee Farmers: Agent-based Simulation in Uganda," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 727-748, September.
    14. Ruth Hill & Carolina Mejia-Mantilla & Kathryn Vasilaky, 2021. "Is the Price Right? Returns to Input Adoption in Uganda," Working Papers 2105, California Polytechnic State University, Department of Economics.
    15. Thiagu Ranganathan & Usha Ananthakumar, 2017. "Hedging in Presence of Crop Yield, Crop Revenue and Rainfall Insurance," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(1), pages 151-171, March.
    16. Thiagu Ranganathan & Sarthak Gaurav & Ashish Singh, 2014. "Using choice experiments, we estimate the willingness to pay for price insurance among cotton and paddy farmers in the Indian state of Gujarat. We also identify the interactions between the demand for," IEG Working Papers 340, Institute of Economic Growth.
    17. Latynskiy, Evgeny & Berger, Thomas, 2015. "UTZ certification for groups of smallholder coffee farmers: Hype of hope?," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 229069, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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