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Economic Shocks and Populism

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  • Fausto Panunzi
  • Nicola Pavoni
  • Guido Tabellini

Abstract

We study how voters’ preferences between a safe incumbent and a risky opponent change in the aftermath of a negative aggregate shock. With reference-dependent preferences, economically disappointed voters become risk lovers, and are hence attracted by the more risky candidate. Survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel are consistent with our assumptions and theoretical predictions on voters’ behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Fausto Panunzi & Nicola Pavoni & Guido Tabellini, 2024. "Economic Shocks and Populism," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(663), pages 3047-3061.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:134:y:2024:i:663:p:3047-3061.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ej/ueae042
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