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Flattening of the Phillips Curve with State-Dependent Prices and Wages

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  • James Costain
  • Anton Nakov
  • Borja Petit

Abstract

We study monetary transmission in a model of state-dependent prices and wages based on ‘control costs’. Stickiness arises because precise choice is costly: decision makers tolerate errors both in the timing of adjustments, and in the new level at which the price or wage is set. The model is calibrated to microdata on the size and frequency of price and wage changes. In our simulations, money shocks have less persistent real effects than in the Calvo framework; nonetheless, the model exhibits a substantial degree of non-neutrality, driven mainly by wage rigidity. State-dependent nominal stickiness implies a flatter Phillips curve as trend inflation declines, because price and wage adjustments become less frequent, making short-run inflation less reactive to shocks. Our model can explain almost half of the observed decline in the slope of the Phillips curve since 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • James Costain & Anton Nakov & Borja Petit, 2022. "Flattening of the Phillips Curve with State-Dependent Prices and Wages," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(642), pages 546-581.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:132:y:2022:i:642:p:546-581.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ej/ueab063
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque, 2023. "Monetary policy and the wage inflation-unemployment tradeoff," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    2. Lenza, Michele & Moutachaker, Inès & Paredes, Joan, 2023. "Density forecasts of inflation: a quantile regression forest approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 18298, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Harding, Martín & Lindé, Jesper & Trabandt, Mathias, 2023. "Understanding post-COVID inflation dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 101-118.
    4. Karadi, Peter & Amann, Juergen & Bachiller, Javier Sánchez & Seiler, Pascal & Wursten, Jesse, 2023. "Price setting on the two sides of the Atlantic - Evidence from supermarket scanner data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 1-17.
    5. Anastasia Burya & Rui Mano & Yannick Timmer & Anke Weber, 2023. "The Wage Phillips Curve under Labor Market Power," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 110-113, May.
    6. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    7. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Grimaud, Alex, 2023. "Price setting frequency and the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    8. Ambrocio, Gene, 2023. "Demographic aging and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2023, Bank of Finland.
    9. François Gourio & Phuong Ngo, 2024. "Downward Nominal Rigidities and Bond Premia," Working Paper Series WP 2024-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    10. Anastasia Burya & Rui Mano & Mr. Yannick Timmer & Miss Anke Weber, 2022. "Monetary Policy Under Labor Market Power," IMF Working Papers 2022/128, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Chen, Haixia & Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2023. "UK Monetary Policy in An Estimated DSGE Model with State-Dependent Price and Wage Contracts," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/22, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

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