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Editor's Choice Are Bubbles Bad? Is a Higher Debt Target for the Eurozone Desirable?

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  • Coen Teulings

Abstract

Bubbles are usually viewed as a threat to financial stability. This paper takes a more nuanced view. The world economy is going through an episode of Secular Stagnation, where the equilibrium rate of return on capital r is below the growth rate of the economy g. As is well-known, rational bubbles are sustainable when r ≤ g in a steady-state equilibrium. Bubbles can then implement a dynamically efficient equilibrium. We show that from a structural point of view, bubbles, Pay-As-You-Go pensions, and sovereign debt are perfect substitutes. However, when dealing with unexpected short-run fluctuations in investment, sovereign debt is far more efficient than bubbles in shifting consumption over time and in risk-sharing between generations. An increase in sovereign debt is, therefore, an efficient response to Secular Stagnation. Instead, the current Stability and Growth Pact for the eurozone embarks on an opposite course. (JEL codes: E44 and E62).

Suggested Citation

  • Coen Teulings, 2016. "Editor's Choice Are Bubbles Bad? Is a Higher Debt Target for the Eurozone Desirable?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(2), pages 197-209.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:62:y:2016:i:2:p:197-209.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cesifo/ifw011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rachel, Lukasz & Smith, Thomas, 2015. "Secular drivers of the global real interest rate," Bank of England working papers 571, Bank of England.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2017. "Heterogeneity in the debt-growth nexus: Evidence from EMU countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 470-486.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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