Dark matter, black holes and old-fashioned exploitation: transnational corporations and the US economy

In advanced economies, foreign direct investment (FDI) is usually a two-way process, involving both inwards and outwards investment, often in the same industries. Why, then, is US FDI so profitable whilst FDI in the USA is conspicuous in its unprofitability? Using sectoral-based data from 1999 to 2005 to investigate this puzzle, I find that US-owned FDI (USDIA) demonstrates far higher returns particularly relative to foreign-owned direct investment in the USA (FDIUS) but also compared to all US-based industries (NIPA). FDIUS is the worst performing of all three portfolios, exhibiting the poorest and most volatile returns for the period examined. These results hold for both the aggregate non-financial data as well as for the ‘narrow measured value added’. For the period tested, US inwards FDI isn’t employment generating whereas US direct investment abroad produces the fastest gains in labour productivity, output, employment, investment expenditures and tax revenues. Whilst it is debatable that ‘dark matter’ or intangible proprietary assets drive superior relative returns to USDIA, labour exploitation appears to play a role. Increases in labour productivity coupled with declining wage shares for all three portfolios (especially pronounced for USDIA) suggest ‘race to bottom’ outcomes. A burgeoning aspect of this race is cross-border profit-shifting to minimise firms’ global tax burdens. I suspect but am unable to confirm that profits are being shifted overseas—vanishing into the ‘black holes’ of tax havens, transfer pricing and other modes of tax avoidance.