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The escape from conjectural variations: the consistency condition in duopoly theory from Bowley to Fellner

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  • Nicola Giocoli

Abstract

The paper covers the 1924--1949 debate on the conjectural variations approach to duopoly theory and focuses on the evolution of economists' views about the imposition of a consistency condition on the firms' conjectures. The main point is that, although the consistency condition entailed a notion of interactive equilibrium that resembled the modern correct conjectures equilibrium, most neoclassical economists of the time refused to apply it because of the excessive requirements it imposed upon the firms' forecasting abilities, and because of its failure to encompass an explanation of the equilibrating process. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicola Giocoli, 2005. "The escape from conjectural variations: the consistency condition in duopoly theory from Bowley to Fellner," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 29(4), pages 601-618, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cambje:v:29:y:2005:i:4:p:601-618
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cje/bei007
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    Cited by:

    1. Paulo Brito & Bipasa Datta & Huw Dixon, 2011. "The evolution of mixed conjectures in the rent-extraction game," Discussion Papers 11/06, Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Vyacheslav Kalashnikov & Vladimir Bulavsky & Vitaliy Kalashnikov & Nataliya Kalashnykova, 2014. "Structure of demand and consistent conjectural variations equilibrium (CCVE) in a mixed oligopoly model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 217(1), pages 281-297, June.
    3. Kalashnikov, Vyacheslav V. & Bulavsky, Vladimir A. & Kalashnykova, Nataliya I. & Castillo, Felipe J., 2011. "Mixed oligopoly with consistent conjectures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(3), pages 729-735, May.
    4. V. A. Bulavsky & V. V. Kalashnikov, 2012. "Games with Linear Conjectures About System Parameters," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 152-170, January.
    5. Ludovic A. Julien & Olivier Musy, 2015. "A Review of Heinrich von Stackelberg's Book: ‘Market Structure and Equilibrium’," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 52-60, March.
    6. Aitor Ciarreta & Javier García†Enríquez, 2018. "Profitable Strategic Delegation With Conjectural Variations," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 185-203, April.
    7. Viacheslav Kalashnikov & Nataliya Kalashnykova & José G. Flores-Muñiz, 2022. "Special Issue on Variational Inequalities: Consistent Conjectural Variations Coincide with the Nash Solution in the Meta-Model," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 289-313, June.
    8. Douglas, Niall Edward, 2006. "Explain ‘conjectural variation’ in Cournot duopoly, evaluate its impacts and discuss the policy implication," MPRA Paper 13652, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    1. Conjectural variation in Wikipedia English
    2. Variación conjetural in Wikipedia Spanish
    3. Variation conjecturale in Wikipedia French

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