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The Singer-Prebisch Hypothesis: A Statistical Evaluation

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  • Sarkar, Prabirjit

Abstract

The statistical objections raised against the Singer-Prebisch thesis regarding the secular decline in the terms of trade of primary products in relation to manufactures, do not have as sound a basis as is generally supposed they have on a priori grounds. The projection of that historical experience into the post-war years as made by H. W. Singer and R. Prebisch also holds good until the oil crisis years of the 1970s; it would hold true up to 1983 if oil and OPEC are exc luded as a special case. With the decline in the terms of trade of primary products, the trading terms of the developing region vis-a- vis the developed one also deteriorated. In view of increasing manufacture exports by the developing region, it is doubtful how far the two terms-of-trade indexes will move in the same direction. Copyright 1986 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarkar, Prabirjit, 1986. "The Singer-Prebisch Hypothesis: A Statistical Evaluation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 10(4), pages 355-371, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cambje:v:10:y:1986:i:4:p:355-71
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    Cited by:

    1. David Colman, 2010. "Agriculture's terms of trade: issues and implications," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 1-15, November.
    2. Awel, Ahmed Mohammed, 2012. "Terms of Trade Volatility and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 45453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Prabirjit Sarkar, 2001. "The North-South terms of trade debate: a re-examination," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 1(4), pages 309-327, October.
    4. Awel, Ahmed Mohammed & Desalegn, Gashaw, 2017. "Effects of Terms of Trade and Its Volatility on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Ethiopian Economics Association, vol. 27(01), April.
    5. Eric Lob & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "A Political Economy Analysis of Changes and Continuities in Iran-Africa Trade Relations: A Case of South-South Dependency?," Working Papers 2405, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    6. Sapsford, David & Balasubramanyam, V. N., 1994. "The long-run behavior of the relative price of primary commodities: Statistical evidence and policy implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(11), pages 1737-1745, November.
    7. Prabirjit Sarkar, 2008. "Trade Openness and Growth: Is There Any Link?," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 763-785, September.
    8. Bilge Erten, 2010. "Industrial Upgrading and Export Diversification: A Comparative Analysis of Economic Policies in Turkey and Malaysia," Working Papers id:2778, eSocialSciences.
    9. Cristóbal Kay, 1991. "Reflections on the Latin American Contribution to Development Theory," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 31-68, January.
    10. Murat ASLAN & Saban NAZLIOGLU, 2018. "Do International Relative Commodity Prices Support the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis? A Nonlinear Panel Unit Root Testing," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 76-92, December.
    11. David Sapsford, 1990. "Primary Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 66(4), pages 342-356, December.
    12. José Antonio Ocampo & María Angela Parra, 2004. "The commodity terms of trade and their strategic implications for development," International Trade 0403001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ranjan Aneja & Arjun, 2022. "Impact of Terms of Trade on GDP in the Context of Prebisch–Singer Theorem: Evidence from Egypt and Guinea," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(5), pages 2561-2575, October.
    14. -, 1988. "CEPAL Review no.34," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    15. Shouvik Chakraborty & Prabirjit Sarkar, 2020. "From The Classical Economists To Empiricists: A Review Of The Terms Of Trade Controversy," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5), pages 1111-1133, December.

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