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Optimal Rangeland Stocking Decisions Under Stochastic and Climate-Impacted Weather

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  • John P. Ritten
  • W. Marshall Frasier
  • Christopher T. Bastian
  • Stephen T. Gray

Abstract

A Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) model is developed to analyze optimal stocking rates in the face of weather uncertainty and potential climate change projections. The model extends previous work modeling grazing as a predator-prey relationship. Attention is given to profit maximizing decisions when growing season precipitation is unknown. Comparisons are made across results from a model that utilizes constant growing season precipitation in all years. Results suggest that optimal stocking rates and profitability decrease in climate change scenarios with increased precipitation variability as compared to the historical stochastic weather scenario. Copyright 2010, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • John P. Ritten & W. Marshall Frasier & Christopher T. Bastian & Stephen T. Gray, 2010. "Optimal Rangeland Stocking Decisions Under Stochastic and Climate-Impacted Weather," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1242-1255.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:92:y:2010:i:4:p:1242-1255
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ajae/aaq052
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    Cited by:

    1. Hailey Wilmer & María E. Fernández-Giménez & Shayan Ghajar & Peter Leigh Taylor & Caridad Souza & Justin D. Derner, 2020. "Managing for the middle: rancher care ethics under uncertainty on Western Great Plains rangelands," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 37(3), pages 699-718, September.
    2. Boaitey, Albert & Ellen, Goddard, 2016. "Optimal Livestock Management For Improved Environmental Outcomes: How Effective Are Carbon Offset Markets?," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236010, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Boaitey, Albert & Goddard, Ellen & Mohapatra, Sandeep, 2019. "Environmentally friendly breeding, spatial heterogeneity and effective carbon offset design in beef cattle," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 35-45.
    4. Meki, Manyowa N. & Osorio-Leyton, Javier & Steglich, Evelyn M. & Kiniry, Jim R. & Propato, Marco & Winchell, Mike & Rathjens, Hendrik & Angerer, Jay P. & Norfleet, Lee M., 2023. "Plant parameterization and APEXgraze model calibration and validation for US land resource region H grazing lands," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    5. Bastian, Christopher T. & Gray, Stephen T. & Peck, Dannele E. & Ritten, John P. & Hansen, Kristiana M. & Krall, James M. & Paisley, Steven I., 2011. "The Nature of Climate Science for the Rocky Mountain West: Implications for Economists Trying to Help Agriculture Adapt," Western Economics Forum, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 1-10.
    6. Robert, Marion & Bergez, Jacques-Eric & Thomas, Alban, 2018. "A stochastic dynamic programming approach to analyze adaptation to climate change – Application to groundwater irrigation in India," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(3), pages 1033-1045.
    7. Briner, Simon & Finger, Robert, 2012. "Bio-economic modelling of decisions under yield and price risk for suckler cow farms," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122547, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Robert, Marion & Thomas, Alban & Bergez, Jacques Eric, 2016. "Processes of adpatation in farm decision-making models. A review," TSE Working Papers 16-731, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    9. Mark E. Ritchie, 2020. "Grazing Management, Forage Production and Soil Carbon Dynamics," Resources, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-20, April.
    10. Justin Derner & David Briske & Matt Reeves & Tami Brown-Brandl & Miranda Meehan & Dana Blumenthal & William Travis & David Augustine & Hailey Wilmer & Derek Scasta & John Hendrickson & Jerry Volesky &, 2018. "Vulnerability of grazing and confined livestock in the Northern Great Plains to projected mid- and late-twenty-first century climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 19-32, January.
    11. Wang, Tong & Richard Teague, W. & Park, Seong C. & Bevers, Stan, 2018. "Evaluating long-term economic and ecological consequences of continuous and multi-paddock grazing - a modeling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 197-207.

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