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Should Farmers Follow the Recommendations of Market Advisory Services? A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Expected Performance

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  • Silvina M. Cabrini
  • Scott H. Irwin
  • Darrel L. Good

Abstract

A Bayesian hierarchical approach is employed to estimate individual expected performance of agricultural market advisory services. Skeptical beliefs based on market efficiency are incorporated as prior information. For a skeptical decision maker who is willing to follow an advisory program only if it is expected to increase price received by more than 1%, one of the corn programs, most of the soybean programs, and a few wheat programs may be valuable marketing alternatives. The expectation under this model from following the single top-ranked program are price increases of 1%, 4%, and 3% for corn, soybeans, and wheat, respectively. Copyright 2010, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvina M. Cabrini & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good, 2010. "Should Farmers Follow the Recommendations of Market Advisory Services? A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Expected Performance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 622-637.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:92:y:2010:i:3:p:622-637
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ajae/aaq024
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    Cited by:

    1. Douglas MacKinnon & Martin Pavlovič, 2020. "A Bayesian analysis of hop price fluctuations," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 66(12), pages 519-526.
    2. Jacobs, Keri & Li, Ziran & Hayes, Dermot, 2016. "Price Responses in Forward Contracting: Do We Limit The Upside And Expose The Downside?," ISU General Staff Papers 201601010800001017, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Riley, John M., 2013. "Extension’s Role in Commodity Marketing Education: Past, Present, and Future," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 45, pages 1-19, August.

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