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The Working Curve and Commodity Storage under Backwardation

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  • Colin A. Carter
  • Cesar L. Revoredo Giha

Abstract

There remains controversy over whether the empirical curve relating intertemporal commodity price spreads and stocks, originally drawn by Holbrook Working in 1933 (i.e., the Working curve), is a valid stylized fact in commodity markets. The core of the controversy is the portion of the curve representing commodity stocks under backwardation. In this article we analyze the original data used by Working, plus more disaggregated numbers. We find that the Working curve is indeed valid. The diversity of stockholders and different stockholding motives most likely explain the empirical Working curve relationship. Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Colin A. Carter & Cesar L. Revoredo Giha, 2007. "The Working Curve and Commodity Storage under Backwardation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(4), pages 864-872.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:89:y:2007:i:4:p:864-872
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2007.01021.x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Atle Oglend & Vesa-Heikki Soini, 2020. "Equilibrium Working Curves with Heterogeneous Agents," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(2), pages 355-372, August.
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2274 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Myers, Robert J., 2013. "Evaluating the effectiveness of inter-regional trade and storage in Malawi’s private sector maize markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 75-84.
    4. Power, Gabriel J. & Robinson, John R.C., 2009. "Cotton Futures Dynamics: Structural Change, Index Traders and the Returns to Storage," 2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri 53044, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    5. Brockhaus, Jan & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Kozicka, Marta, 2016. "What Drives India’s Rice Stocks? Empirical Evidence," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235659, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Adjemian, Michael K. & Janzen, Joseph & Carter, Colin A. & Smith, Aaron, 2014. "Deconstructing Wheat Price Spikes: A Model of Supply and Demand, Financial Speculation, and Commodity Price Comovement," Economic Research Report 167369, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    7. Féménia, Fabienne & Gohin, Alexandre, 2010. "Faut-il une intervention publique pour stabiliser les marchés agricoles ? Revue des questions non résolues," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement (RAEStud), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 91(4).
    8. Mark W. French, 2005. "Why and when do spot prices of crude oil revert to futures price levels?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2011. "Commodity Booms and Busts," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-118, October.
    10. Francisco Arroyo Marioli, 2020. "Old crop versus new crop prices: Explaining the correlation," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1192-1208, July.
    11. Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Comparing Numerical Methods for Solving the Competitive Storage Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 267-295, February.
    12. Considine, Jennifer & Galkin, Philipp & Aldayel, Abdullah, 2022. "Inventories and the term structure of oil prices: A complex relationship," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    13. Paunić, Alida, 2016. "Solar Australia," MPRA Paper 71201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Blank, Steven C. & Saitone, Tina L. & Sexton, Richard J., 2014. "Seller-Offered Forward Contracts: An Additional Benefit to Cattle Producers from Satellite Video Auctions," 2014 Annual Meeting, February 1-4, 2014, Dallas, Texas 162323, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

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