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Modeling Interdependence: An Approach to Simulation and Elicitation

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  • Paul L. Fackler

Abstract

A method for eliciting probability information about jointly dependent random variables and incorporating that information directly in a method for generating simulated random variables is developed. The method is particularly useful in situations in which information on several interdependent variables is required. Applications in agriculture include whole-farm planning with uncertainty about multiple crop yields and prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul L. Fackler, 1991. "Modeling Interdependence: An Approach to Simulation and Elicitation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(4), pages 1091-1097.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:73:y:1991:i:4:p:1091-1097.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1242437
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    Cited by:

    1. Werner, Christoph & Bedford, Tim & Cooke, Roger M. & Hanea, Anca M. & Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo, 2017. "Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: A systematic literature review and future research directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(3), pages 801-819.
    2. Sang Hyeon Lee & Ji Yong Lee & Doo Bong Han & Rodolfo M. Nayga, 2015. "Are Korean consumers willing to pay a tax for a mandatory BSE testing programme?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(13), pages 1286-1297, March.
    3. Mitchell, Paul D. & Knight, Thomas O., 2008. "Economic Analysis of Supplemental Deductible Coverage as Recommended in the USDA's 2007 Farm Bill Proposal," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 117-131, April.
    4. Gudbrand Lien & J. Hardaker & Marcel Asseldonk & James Richardson, 2011. "Risk programming analysis with imperfect information," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 190(1), pages 311-323, October.
    5. Mitchell, Paul D. & Knight, Thomas O., 2007. "Economic Analysis of Supplemental Deductible Coverage as Recommended in the USDA’s 2007 Farm Bill Proposal," Staff Papers 92125, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    6. Miller, Douglas J. & Liu, Wei-han, 2002. "On the recovery of joint distributions from limited information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 259-274, March.
    7. Belasco, Eric J., 2008. "The Role of Price Risk Management in Mitigating Fed Cattle Profit Exposure," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1-17.

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