IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/ajagec/v70y1988i3p685-692..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian Evaluation of a Specific Hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Edward O. Fryar
  • J. T. Arnold
  • James E. Dunn

Abstract

A bayesian procedure is developed to compute the posterior probability that a set of parameter estimates is arbitrarily close to a specified set of values. This procedure allows researchers to directly measure the evidence favoring a specific hypothesis. Because of the current inability to measure this evidence directly, some researchers are confusing the inability to reject a null hypothesis with the justification for accepting it and are thus committing a null hypothesis error. To illustrate the applicability of this new procedure, it is used to evaluate the evidence supporting one version of the efficient market hypothesis. Contrary to the results of an earlier study, little support was found for the efficient market hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward O. Fryar & J. T. Arnold & James E. Dunn, 1988. "Bayesian Evaluation of a Specific Hypothesis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(3), pages 685-692.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:70:y:1988:i:3:p:685-692.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1241507
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 207-237, April.
    2. Maury E. Bredahl & Leonardo Green, 1983. "Residual Supplier Model of Coarse Grains Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(4), pages 785-790.
    3. Edward O. Fryar, 1986. "Residual Supplier Model of Coarse Grains Trade: Comment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1028-1029.
    4. Ciccolo, John H, Jr, 1978. "Money, Equity, Values, and Income: Tests for Exogeneity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 46-64, February.
    5. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nepelski, Daniel, 2010. "Competition and Innovation: ICT- and non-ICT-enabled Product and Process Innovations," MPRA Paper 26243, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Denbaly, Massoud Said Mark, 1984. "U. S. monetary policy and the exchange rate: effects on the world coarse grain market," ISU General Staff Papers 198401010800008753, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "The Observational Equivalence of Natural and Unnatural Rate Theories of Macroeconomics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 631-640, June.
    3. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64, Elsevier.
    4. Antoine d'Autume, 1986. "Les anticipations rationnelles dans l'analyse macro-économique," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(2), pages 243-284.
    5. Lamm, R. McFall Jr., 1980. "Effects of Government Policy on Agriculture: An Empirical Analysis," Economics Statistics and Cooperative Services (ESCS) Reports 329209, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Feng Zhu, 2005. "The fragility of the Phillips curve: A bumpy ride in the frequency domain," BIS Working Papers 183, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Lundberg, Shelly J, 1985. "Tied Wage-Hours Offers and the Endogeneity of Wages," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 405-410, August.
    8. Sargent, Thomas J., 1979. "A note on maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 133-143, January.
    9. E. A. Boehm, 1984. "Money Wages, Consumer Prices, and Causality in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 60(3), pages 236-251, September.
    10. Jacobs, Rodney L & Leamer, Edward E & Ward, Michael P, 1979. "Difficulties with Testing for Causation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 17(3), pages 401-413, July.
    11. Thomas J. Sargent, 1977. "Is Keynesian economics a dead end?," Working Papers 101, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    12. René Capitelli, 1985. "Eine empirische Untersuchung über den Zusammenhang von kurz-, mittel- und langfristigen schweizerischen Zinssätzen," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 121(I), pages 1-22, March.
    13. Sarker, Rakhal, 1990. "Testing Causality in Economics: A Review," Department of Agricultural Economics and Business 258629, University of Guelph.
    14. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2011. "Thomas J. Sargent and Christopher A. Sims: Empirical Macroeconomics," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2011-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
    15. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "Exact linear rational expectations models: specification and estimation," Staff Report 71, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    16. Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Money and business cycles: a real business cycle interpretation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    17. Barkley, David L. & Helander, Peter, 1984. "Commercial Bank Loans and Economic Activity in Nonmetropolitan Arizona: A Question of Causality," 1984 Annual Meeting, August 5-8, Ithaca, New York 279027, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1981. "The Roles of Money and Credit in Macroeconomic Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 1985. "Die Schweiz im internationalen Zinszusammenhang. Eine zeitreihenanalytische Untersuchung für die Zeit von 1974 bis 1983," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 121(IV), pages 329-351, December.
    20. KAMKOUM, Arnaud Cedric, 2023. "The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and its Effects: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of the Impact of its Quantitative Easing Programs," Thesis Commons d7pvg, Center for Open Science.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:70:y:1988:i:3:p:685-692.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.