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Hog Cycles and Countercyclical Production Response

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  • Dermot J. Hayes
  • Andrew Schmitz

Abstract

The cycle in prices and output is not a permanent fixture of the pork industry. Exogenous shocks occasionally give rise to predictable cycles in pork prices, but these are eventually eliminated in a manner that is consistent with the existence of countercyclical producers. It normally takes several revolutions of the cycle before a sufficient number of countercyclical producers notice that a cycle has begun and are able to alter their production patterns sufficiently to eliminate it. Consequently, the more compelling the evidence is in favor of a cycle the less likely it is to continue.

Suggested Citation

  • Dermot J. Hayes & Andrew Schmitz, 1987. "Hog Cycles and Countercyclical Production Response," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(4), pages 762-770.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:69:y:1987:i:4:p:762-770.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1242186
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    Cited by:

    1. Lota D. Tamini & Jean‐Philippe Gervais, 2005. "Developing Economic Indexes for the Quebec Hog/Pork Industry," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 53(1), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Christoph Engel & Hanjo Hamann, 2012. "The Hog-Cycle of Law Professors," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2012_08, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    3. Berg, Ernst & Huffaker, Ray, 2015. "Economic Dynamics of the German Hog-Price Cycle," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 6(2), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Holst, Carsten & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2012. "International Synchronisation of the Pork Cycle," Acta Oeconomica et Informatica, Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra (FEM SPU), vol. 15(1), pages 1-6, March.
    5. SaangJoon Baak, 1999. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Market Dynamics, and Social Welfare," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 222, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 1999. "On The Economic Rationality Of Market Participants: The Case Of Expectations In The U.S. Pork Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, July.
    7. Atle Oglend & Frank Asche, 2016. "Cyclical non-stationarity in commodity prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1465-1479, December.
    8. Yongtong Shao & Tao Xiong & Minghao Li & Dermot Hayes & Wendong Zhang & Wei Xie, 2021. "China's Missing Pigs: Correcting China's Hog Inventory Data Using a Machine Learning Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 1082-1098, May.
    9. Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Park, Myung D., 2009. "Looking for Cattle and Hog Cycles through a Bayesian Window," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49278, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. SaangJoon Baak, 2000. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Volatility and Welfare," Working Papers EMS_2000_01, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    11. Christoph Engel & Hanjo Hamann, 2016. "The Hog Cycle of Law Professors: An Econometric Time Series Analysis of the Entry-Level Job Market in Legal Academia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(7), pages 1-22, July.
    12. Arango, Santiago & Moxnes, Erling, 2012. "Commodity cycles, a function of market complexity? Extending the cobweb experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 321-334.

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