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An Evaluation of Short-Term Forecasts of Coffee and Cocoa

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  • J. Kimball Dietrich
  • Alfredo D. Gutierrez

Abstract

Predictive performance of short-term forecasts of production is evaluated using a technique which minimizes the average squared difference between actual and forecast values. Forecasting errors are decomposed into two components reflecting the forecast system and a residual component. Many forecasts resulted in underestimation and contained large but unsystematic errors.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Kimball Dietrich & Alfredo D. Gutierrez, 1973. "An Evaluation of Short-Term Forecasts of Coffee and Cocoa," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 55(1), pages 93-99.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:55:y:1973:i:1:p:93-99.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1238670
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    Cited by:

    1. MacDonald, Stephen, 1992. "The Accuracy of USDA's Export Forecasts," MPRA Paper 71543, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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