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An Application of Statistical Decision Theory to Cattle Feedlot Marketing

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  • J. Bruce Bullock
  • Samuel H. Logan

Abstract

The commercial cattle feeder is continually faced with the decision of whether to market a particular lot of cattle at their current weight or to continue feeding them. Uncertainty about future price changes is an important factor in this decision. The study uses statistical decision theory to combine a priori information about the historical pattern of month-to-month price changes with information provided by a price forecasting model to develop monthly feed or sell decision criteria. These criteria specify the minimum predicted price change required to generate positive expected returns from feeding an additional 30 days.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Bruce Bullock & Samuel H. Logan, 1970. "An Application of Statistical Decision Theory to Cattle Feedlot Marketing," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 52(2), pages 234-241.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:52:y:1970:i:2:p:234-241.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1237494
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chiang, Y.C. & Jensen, Robert B. & Kenyon, David E. & Kline, R.G., 1974. "Bayesian Decision Strategies Applied To Production And Marketing Decisions For Cow-Calf Farms In The Shenandoah Area Of Virginia," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 6(2), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Jacobs, James J. & Held, Larry J., 1989. "A Case Analysis of Stream Flow Forecasts with Reference to Fertilizing Mountain Hay Meadows," WAEA/ WFEA Conference Archive (1929-1995) 244964, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    3. Lindner, Robert K., 1987. "Toward A Framework For Evaluating Agricultural Economics Research," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 31(2), pages 1-17, August.
    4. Gonzalez-Mendez, Hector Eduardo, 1977. "Grain marketing gains in Iowa and the use of price forecasting models: a Bayesian decision approach," ISU General Staff Papers 197701010800007084, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Williams, Joseph Eugene, 1975. "Feeding-marketing decisions and the value of price forecast information to the cattle feeder," ISU General Staff Papers 197501010800006641, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Throsby, C.D., 1973. "New Methodologies in Agricultural Production Economics: a Review," 1973 Conference, August 19-30, 1973, São Paulo, Brazil 181385, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Lindner, Bob, 1987. "Toward A Framework for Evaluating Agricultural Economics Research," Discussion Papers 315419, University of Western Australia, School of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    8. Jackson, Ron, 1975. "Decision Analysis And Farm Management: The Need For A New Perspective," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 43(03), pages 1-5, September.

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