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Possible Trade Effects Of The Next European Union Enlargement

Author

Listed:
  • Nedelescu-Ionescu Daniela

    (Academia de Studii Economice Bucuresti, Relatii Economice Internationale)

  • Rujan Ovidiu

    (Academia de Studii Economice Bucuresti, Relatii Economice Internationale)

Abstract

The European Union next enlargement will constitute a significant qualitative change in the structure of the current Union, as the accession of the Western Balkan countries and of Turkey in particular will bring a brand new set of economic problems. It is expected that this enlargement to have a considerable effect for the new entrants, as well as for the European Union as a whole.\\r\\nConsidering some of the aspects raised by a new extension, this article aims to observe the trade impact of a new enlargement with the membership of the Western Balkan countries and Turkey, as this new growth is expected to have a considerable effect for the new entrants and for the European Union as a whole.\\r\\nThis study is based on the compare of the potential trade creation effects with the trade diversion effects resulting from the removal of trade restrictions for Western Balkan countries and Turkey and the European Union, by using the revealed comparative advantage index.\\r\\nThe analyze objective was to estimate the degree of trade creation and trade diversion outcome on the EU countries when Western Balkan countries and Turkey are included into the Union market.\\r\\nThe obtained results suggest that the export structures differ significantly among Western Balkan countries and Turkey and the European Union. Based on the revealed comparative advantage indexes, the authors would expect an intra-regional trade creation effect, but also we expect a risk for the Eastern European countries trade with European Union, especially as a result of Turkey\\\\\\\'s accession into the European markets without any trade barriers.\\r\\nAs far as trade creation and trade diversion effects are concerned, they observed that Western Balkan countries and Turkey, probably, do not change the European Union position significantly because of their lower trade volume comparing with the one of the EU-27.

Suggested Citation

  • Nedelescu-Ionescu Daniela & Rujan Ovidiu, 2012. "Possible Trade Effects Of The Next European Union Enlargement," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 47-53, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ora:journl:v:1:y:2012:i:1:p:47-53
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baldwin, Richard E, 1992. "Measurable Dynamic Gains from Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 162-174, February.
    2. Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Under NAFTA," NBER Working Papers 7429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU enlargement; trade creation (TC); trade diversion (TD); revealed comparative advantage (RCA); economic integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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