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Euro area business cycles

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  • Atilim Seymen

Abstract

The role of global, euro area and country-specific shocks in business cycle dynamics of six euro area member countries is assessed with the aid of SVAR models. Output fluctuations are driven by global shocks to a large extent in the euro area, and no Europeanisation of business cycles due to, for example the European Monetary Union, could be established. Business cycle heterogeneity is driven mainly by (asymmetric) country-specific shocks in the euro area and not by heterogeneous responses to common, particularly global, shocks. The cyclical disparity across the member economies is found to be small relative to the size of business cycles. JEL classification: E32, C32, F00 Keywords: European Monetary Union, international business cycles, common and country-specific shocks, structural vector autoregression

Suggested Citation

  • Atilim Seymen, 2012. "Euro area business cycles," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(1), pages 1-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkab:5k98xgf7dnwk
    DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-2012-5k98xgf7dnwk
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    Cited by:

    1. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    european monetary union; international business cycles; common and country-specific shocks; structural vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General

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