IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oec/stdkab/5jz742l0pt8s.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-term forecasting of French GDP growth using dynamic factor models

Author

Listed:
  • Marie Bessec
  • Catherine Doz

Abstract

In recent years, central banks and international organisations have been making ever greater use of factor models to forecast macroeconomic variables. We examine the performance of these models in forecasting French GDP growth over short horizons. The factors are extracted from a large data set of around one hundred variables including survey balances and real, financial, and international variables. An out-of-sample pseudo real-time evaluation over the past decade shows that factor models provide a gain in accuracy relative to the usual benchmarks. However, the forecasts remain inaccurate before the start of the quarter. We also show that the inclusion of international and financial variables can improve forecasts at the longest horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Marie Bessec & Catherine Doz, 2014. "Short-term forecasting of French GDP growth using dynamic factor models," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(2), pages 11-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkab:5jz742l0pt8s
    DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-2013-5jz742l0pt8s
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2013-5jz742l0pt8s
    Download Restriction: Full text available to READ online. PDF download available to OECD iLibrary subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1787/jbcma-2013-5jz742l0pt8s?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Anastasia Mogilat & Oleg Kryzhanovskiy & Zhanna Shuvalova & Yaroslav Murashov, 2024. "DYFARUS: Dynamic Factor Model to Forecast GDP by Output Using Input-Output Tables," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 83(2), pages 3-25, June.
    3. Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo & Ferreira, Thiago R.T. & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2024. "Back to the present: Learning about the euro area through a now-casting model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 661-686.
    4. Christophe Piette, 2016. "Predicting Belgium’s GDP using targeted bridge models," Working Paper Research 290, National Bank of Belgium.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP forecast; factor models;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:stdkab:5jz742l0pt8s. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/oecddfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.