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A comparison of economic indicator analysis and Markov switching methods concerning the cycle phase dynamics: report

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  • Pami Dua
  • Vineeta Sharma

Abstract

This paper compares the dating of growth rate cycles obtained from a Markov switching approach with the reference chronologies based on Economic Indicator Analysis (EIA) given by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), focusing on a set of developed and emerging economies. The developed countries include US, UK, Germany and Japan, which are compared with an emerging economy, India. Using a univariate Markov regime switching model we characterise growth rate cycle phenomena for these countries by identifying turning points and distinct economic regimes, employing data on the growth rate of the coincident index given by ECRI.

Suggested Citation

  • Pami Dua & Vineeta Sharma, 2016. "A comparison of economic indicator analysis and Markov switching methods concerning the cycle phase dynamics: report," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2015(2), pages 1-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkab:5jm22pfhmhlp
    DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-2015-5jm22pfhmhlp
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bhadury, Soumya & Ghosh, Saurabh & Kumar, Pankaj, 2019. "Nowcasting GDP Growth Using a Coincident Economic Indicator for India," MPRA Paper 96007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Pami Dua, 2023. "Macroeconomic Modelling and Bayesian Methods," Springer Books, in: Pami Dua (ed.), Macroeconometric Methods, chapter 0, pages 19-37, Springer.
    3. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2023. "Synchronization in Cycles of China and India During Recent Crises: A Markov Switching Analysis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(2), pages 317-337, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Indicator Analysis; Growth rate cycles; Markov switching models; business cycle phases;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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