IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nzb/nzbbul/mar20172.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Business cycle review: 2008 to present day

Author

Abstract

Following the global financial crisis, spare capacity in the global economy has persisted much longer than in past expansions despite extremely accommodative monetary policy settings in advanced economies. New Zealand has not been immune to these developments – GDP growth here has also been more subdued than in typical expansions, in large part due to weakness and uncertainty abroad. Against this international and domestic backdrop, consumer price inflation in New Zealand has been low, and lower than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and other forecasters initially anticipated – particularly since 2014. This article summarises developments in the New Zealand economy since 2008 through the lens of monetary policy, and identifies five key phases. A subsequent article will present some of the key features of this cycle, and the insights for monetary policy that have emerged or been reinforced.

Suggested Citation

  • Rebecca Williams, 2017. "Business cycle review: 2008 to present day," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 80, pages 1-22, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbbul:mar2017:2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Bulletins/2017/2017mar80-02.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tracy Mears & Gary Blick & Tim Hampton & John Janssen, 2010. "Fiscal Institutions in New Zealand and the Question of a Spending Cap," Treasury Working Paper Series 10/07, New Zealand Treasury.
    2. Günes Kamber & Gabriela Nodari & Benjamin Wong, 2016. "The Impact of Commodity Price Movements on the New Zealand Economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2016/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    3. Adam Richardson & Rebecca Williams, 2015. "Estimating New Zealand’s neutral interest rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2015/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Felicity Barker & Noemi Javier, 2010. "Regulating non-bank deposit takers," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 73, pages 5-18, December.
    5. Rebecca Craigie & David Gillmore & Nicolas Groshenny, 2012. "Matching workers with jobs:how well is the New Zealand labour market doing?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 75, pages 3-12, December.
    6. Nikki Kergozou & Satish Ranchhod, 2013. "Why has inflation in New Zealand been low?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 76, pages 3-11, September.
    7. Michael Reddell & Cath, Sleeman, 2008. "Some perspectives on past recessions," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 71, June.
    8. Aaron Drew & Adrian Orr, 1999. "The Reserve Bank's role in the recent business cycle: actions and evolutions," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, March.
    9. Kevin Hoskin & Ian Nield & Jeremy Richardson, 2009. "The Reserve Bank's new liquidity policy for banks," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 72, pages 5-18, December.
    10. Miles Parker & Daan Steenkamp, 2012. "The economic impact of the Canterbury earthquakes," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 75, pages 13-25, September.
    11. Kelly, Robert & O’Malley, Terence, 2016. "The good, the bad and the impaired: A credit risk model of the Irish mortgage market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 1-9.
    12. Denise R Osborn & Tugrul Vehbi, 2013. "Empirical Evidence on Growth Spillovers from China to New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/17, New Zealand Treasury.
    13. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2016. "Recessions and recoveries in New Zealand's post-Second World War business cycles," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 261-280, September.
    14. Howard Davies, 2009. "The financial crisis- whodunnit?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 72, September.
    15. Amy Wood & Ilan Noy & Miles Parker, 2016. "The Canterbury rebuild five years on from the Christchurch earthquake," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 79, pages 1-16, February.
    16. Anne-Marie Brook & Sean Collins & Christie Smith, 1998. "The 1991-97 business cycle in review," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 61, December.
    17. Alan Bollard & Tim Ng, 2012. "Learnings from the Global Financial Crisis," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 75, pages 57-66, September.
    18. Willy Chetwin, 2012. "Business cycle review, 1998-2011," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 75, pages 14-27, March.
    19. Güneş Kamber & Chris McDonald & Gael Price, 2013. "Drying out: Investigating the economic effects of drought in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adam Richardson, 2019. "New Zealand Wage Inflation Post-crisis," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2019-02, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Jul 2019.
    2. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2021. "Changes in New Zealand's business insolvency rates after the GFC," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(2), pages 173-187, May.
    3. Julia Ratcliffe & Ross Kendall, 2019. "Monetary policy strategy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 82, pages 1-25, April.
    4. John McDermott & Rebecca Williams, 2018. "Inflation Targeting in New Zealand: An Experience in Evolution," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: John Simon & Maxwell Sutton (ed.),Central Bank Frameworks: Evolution or Revolution?, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Viv B Hall & C John McDermott, 2019. "Changes in New Zealand’s Business Insolvency Rates after the Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers 19_15, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeff Borland, 2014. "Recent Unemployment Experience in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 14/01, New Zealand Treasury.
    2. Miles Parker, 2018. "The Impact of Disasters on Inflation," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 21-48, April.
    3. Willy Chetwin & Tim Ng & Daan Steenkamp, 2013. "New Zealand’s short- and medium-term real exchange rate volatility: drivers and policy implications," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Aaron Drew, 2002. "Lessons from Inflation Targeting in New Zealand," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 12, pages 501-538, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Amy Wood & Ilan Noy & Miles Parker, 2016. "The Canterbury rebuild five years on from the Christchurch earthquake," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 79, pages 1-16, February.
    6. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2021. "Changes in New Zealand's business insolvency rates after the GFC," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(2), pages 173-187, May.
    7. Robert A Buckle & Amy A Cruickshank, 2013. "The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/20, New Zealand Treasury.
    8. Dhritidyuti Bose & Renee Philip & Richard Sullivan, 2016. "Returning to Surplus: New Zealand's Post-GFC Fiscal Consolidation Experience," Treasury Working Paper Series 16/05, New Zealand Treasury.
    9. Michael Ryan, 2020. "An Anchor in Stormy Seas: Does Reforming Economic Institutions Reduce Uncertainty? Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/11, University of Waikato.
    10. Hall, Viv & McDermott, John, 2019. "Changes in New Zealand’s Business Insolvency Rates after the GFC," Working Paper Series 8251, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    11. Sin Meun How & Geoffrey N. Kerr, 2019. "Earthquake Impacts on Immigrant Participation in the Greater Christchurch Construction Labor Market," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(2), pages 241-269, April.
    12. Lisa Doyle & Ilan Noy, 2015. "The short-run nationwide macroeconomic effects of the Canterbury earthquakes," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 134-156, August.
    13. Finn Robinson, 2020. "Vacancies, unemployment and labour market slack in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2020/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    14. James Graham, 2014. "'N Sync: how do countries' economies move together?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2014/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    15. Jean-Pierre Andre, 2011. "Economic Imbalances: New Zealand's Structural Challenge," Treasury Working Paper Series 11/03, New Zealand Treasury.
    16. Willy Chetwin, 2012. "Business cycle review, 1998-2011," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 75, pages 14-27, March.
    17. Poontirakul, Porntida & Brown, Charlotte & Noy, Ilan & Seville, Erica & Vargo, John, 2016. "The role of commercial insurance in post-disaster recovery: Quantitative evidence from the 2011 Christchurch earthquake," Working Paper Series 19396, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    18. Poontirakul, Porntida & Brown, Charlotte & Noy, Ilan & Seville, Erica & Vargo, John, 2016. "The role of commercial insurance in post-disaster recovery: Quantitative evidence from the 2011 Christchurch earthquake," Working Paper Series 4980, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    19. McKelvie, S. & Hall, Viv B., 2012. "Stylised facts for New Zealand business cycles: A post-1987 perspective," Working Paper Series 18698, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    20. Viv B Hall & C John McDermott, 2019. "Changes in New Zealand’s Business Insolvency Rates after the Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers 19_15, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbbul:mar2017:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Knowledge Centre (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbngvnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.