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State and Local Property, Income, and Sales Tax Elasticity: Estimates from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels

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  • John E. Anderson
  • Shafiun N. Shimul

Abstract

We estimate the responsiveness of state and local property, income, and sales tax revenues to state gross domestic product (GDP) changes using U.S. Census data over the period 1967-2012. Long-run and short-run elasticities are estimated using panel time series methods designed for dynamic heterogeneous panels (Mean Group (MG), Pooled Mean Group (PMG), and Dynamic Fixed Effects (DFE) estimators). These methods enable us to estimate substantial heterogeneity in elasticities for each major revenue source across states. For property tax systems, in particular, we analyze the tax administration and tax limitation factors that contribute to the observed stability and resilience of that major local government revenue source.

Suggested Citation

  • John E. Anderson & Shafiun N. Shimul, 2018. "State and Local Property, Income, and Sales Tax Elasticity: Estimates from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 71(3), pages 521-546, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:71:y:2018:i:2:p:521-546
    DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2018.3.04
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivanov, Ivan T. & Zimmermann, Tom, 2024. "The “Privatization” of municipal debt," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    2. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Cheng, 2022. "Boosting tax revenues with mixed-frequency data in the aftermath of COVID-19: The case of New York," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 545-566.
    3. Jeffrey Clemens & Stan Veuger, 2020. "Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for State Government Tax Revenues," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 73(3), pages 619-644, September.
    4. repec:aei:journl:y:2020:id:1008578025 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:aei:rpaper:1008570714 is not listed on IDEAS

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