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Perceptions and Realities of Average Tax Rates in the Federal Income Tax: Evidence from Michigan

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  • Charles L. Ballard
  • Sanjay Gupta

Abstract

We asked a random sample of the Michigan population to identify their average tax rate in the federal individual income tax. We find that 84.9 percent of respondents overstate their actual average tax rate, many by very large amounts, with the mean/median overstatement exceeding 11 percentage points. All demographic groups have substantial overstatements. Regression analysis indicates that, all else equal, average income-tax rates tend to be overstated to a greater extent by (1) those who believe taxes on households like theirs should be lower, (2) those who get tax-preparation assistance, and (3) those who believe tax dollars are spent ineffectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles L. Ballard & Sanjay Gupta, 2018. "Perceptions and Realities of Average Tax Rates in the Federal Income Tax: Evidence from Michigan," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 71(2), pages 263-294, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:71:y:2018:i:2:p:263-294
    DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2018.2.03
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    Cited by:

    1. Blesse, Sebastian & Buhlmann, Florian & Doerrenberg, Philipp, 2019. "Do people really want a simple tax system? Evidence on preferences towards income tax simplification," ZEW Discussion Papers 19-058, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. Jérémy Boccanfuso & Antoine Ferey, 2024. "Inattention and the Taxation Bias," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1452-1494.
    3. Jennifer Elena Feichtmayer & Klaus Gründler, 2021. "Global Evidence on Misperceptions and Preferences for Redistribution," CESifo Working Paper Series 9381, CESifo.
    4. Fochmann, Martin & Heinemann-Heile, Vanessa & Huber, Hans-Peter & Maiterth, Ralf & Sureth, Caren, 2022. "Firms' tax rate misperception: Measurement, drivers, and distortionary effects," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 275, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    5. Julie Berry Cullen & Nicholas Turner & Ebonya Washington, 2021. "Political Alignment, Attitudes toward Government, and Tax Evasion," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 135-166, August.
    6. Christian Imboden & John Voorheis & Caroline Weber, 2023. "Self-Employment Income Reporting on Surveys," Working Papers 23-19, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    7. Blesse, Sebastian, 2021. "Are your tax problems an opportunity not to pay taxes? Evidence from a randomized survey experiment," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-040, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Stefanie Stantcheva, 2021. "Understanding Tax Policy: How do People Reason?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(4), pages 2309-2369.
    9. Elizabeth Lyon & J. R. Catlin, 2020. "Consumer Misconceptions about Tax Laws: Results from a Survey in the United States," Journal of Consumer Policy, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 807-828, December.
    10. Blesse, Sebastian, 2023. "Do your tax problems make tax evasion seem more justifiable? Evidence from a survey experiment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. Marino, Maria & Iacono, Roberto & Mollerstrom, Johanna, 2023. "(Mis-)perceptions, information, and political polarization," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119268, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Nyman, Pär & Aggeborn, Linuz & Ahlskog, Rafael, 2022. "Filling in the blanks. How does information about the Swedish EITC affect labour supply?," Working Paper Series 2022:9, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    13. Gao, Wenjing & Mao, Jie & Shi, Xinzheng, 2024. "Do firms benefit from public information services: Evidence from a tax hotline program in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    14. Nyman, Pär & Aggeborn, Linuz & Ahlskog, Rafael, 2023. "Filling in the blanks: How does information about the Swedish EITC affect labour supply?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    15. Dorian Carloni, 2021. "Revisiting the Extent to Which Payroll Taxes Are Passed Through to Employees: Working Paper 2021-06," Working Papers 57089, Congressional Budget Office.

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