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Short-Run Effects of Fiscal Policy With Forward-Looking Financial Markets

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  • Elmendorf, Douglas W.
  • Reifschneider, David L.

Abstract

We explore the short-run effects of fiscal policy using simulations of an empirical, rational-expectations, open-economy macromodel developed at the Federal Reserve Board. Based on this model, we find that tax cuts and spending increases generally stimulate economic activity in the short run, contrary to the extreme view that forward-looking financial markets more than offset the direct expansionary impulse of those actions. However, the magnitude of the stimulus is greatly attenuated by the financial-market feedback. For example, a sustained cut in personal income taxes raises output by less than the amount of the tax cut itself, and it likely reduces output (relative to baseline) in the first several years if phased in gradually over time. Our results also show that the estimated stimulus imparted by fiscal policy is sensitive to reasonable variation in the model’s parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Reifschneider, David L., 2002. "Short-Run Effects of Fiscal Policy With Forward-Looking Financial Markets," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 55(3), pages 357-386, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:55:y:2002:i:3:p:357-86
    DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2002.3.01
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    1. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Afonso, António & Martins, Manuel M.F., 2012. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1789-1807.
    2. Antonio Spilimbergo & Steve Symansky & Olivier Blanchard & Carlo Cottarelli, 2009. "Fiscal Policy For The Crisis," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(02), pages 26-32, July.
    3. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2006. "SIGMA: A New Open Economy Model for Policy Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    4. Sebastian Gechert, 2015. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-regression analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 553-580.
    5. Martin Feldstein, 2002. "The Role for Discretionary Fiscal Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment," NBER Working Papers 9203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2019. "¿Cómo y qué tanto impacta la deuda pública a las tasas de interés de mercado?," Borradores de Economia 1077, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. David L. Reifschneider & John M. Roberts, 2005. "Expectations formation and the effectiveness of strategies for limiting the consequences of the zero bound on interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-70, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Stoian, Andreea & Iorgulescu, Filip, 2020. "Fiscal policy and stock market efficiency: An ARDL Bounds Testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 406-416.
    9. Diego E. Vacaflores, 2013. "Monetary Transfers in the U.S.: How Efficient Are Tax Rebates?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 1(3), pages 1-23, November.
    10. Edge, Rochelle M. & Rudd, Jeremy B., 2011. "General-equilibrium effects of investment tax incentives," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 564-577.
    11. Benjamin M. Friedman, 2005. "Deficits and Debt in the Short and Long Run," NBER Working Papers 11630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Makambi, Steve & Muhindi, Reuben & Nduku, Gillian, 2017. "Influence of bank lending to the government on private sector credit in Kenya: A fiscal deficit specification," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 18, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).
    13. William Gale & Peter Orszag, 2005. "Economic Effects of Making the 2001 and 2003 Tax Cuts Permanent," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 12(2), pages 193-232, March.

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