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State Tobacco Taxation, Education and Smoking: Controlling for the Effects of Omitted Variables

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  • Keeler, Theodore E.
  • Hu, Teh-wei
  • Manning, Willard G.
  • Sung, Hai-Yen

Abstract

There is a potential bias in cross-sectional estimates of the effects of cigarette prices on cigarette consumption. States with the strongest antismoking sentiment will likely have the highest cigarette taxes, which result in the highest prices. Some of the lower consumption of cigarettes in high-tax states will result from such sentiments, rather than from higher taxes, so the estimated effect of cigarette taxes on consumption will be overstated. This study corrects for such bias, employing panel data for U.S. states from 1960 to 1990. We find that controlling for this bias reduces the estimated consumer response to cigarette price change by 40-50 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Keeler, Theodore E. & Hu, Teh-wei & Manning, Willard G. & Sung, Hai-Yen, 2001. "State Tobacco Taxation, Education and Smoking: Controlling for the Effects of Omitted Variables," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 54(1), pages 83-102, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:54:y:2001:i:1:p:83-102
    DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2001.1.04
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    Cited by:

    1. Mark Stehr, 2007. "The effect of cigarette taxes on smoking among men and women," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(12), pages 1333-1343.
    2. Chin W. Yang & Hui Wen Cheng & Ching Wen Chi & Bwo-Nung Huang, 2016. "A Tax Can Increase Profit of a Monopolist or a Monopoly-like Firm: A Fiction or Distinct Possibility?," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 216(1), pages 39-60, March.
    3. DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Donald & Liu, Feng, 2013. "Excise tax avoidance: The case of state cigarette taxes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1130-1141.
    4. Cheng Kai-Wen & Kenkel Don S, 2010. "U.S. Cigarette Demand: 1944-2004," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, August.
    5. Gary A. Hoover, 2003. "The Impact of Nonrevenue Maximizing Factors on State‐Level Cigarette Tax Rates," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(3), pages 349-357, July.
    6. Austan Goolsbee & Michael F. Lovenheim & Joel Slemrod, 2010. "Playing with Fire: Cigarettes, Taxes, and Competition from the Internet," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 131-154, February.
    7. Lovenheim, Michael F., 2008. "How Far to the Border?: The Extent and Impact of Cross-Border Casual Cigarette Smuggling," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 61(1), pages 7-33, March.
    8. Abdulbaki Bilgic & Wojciech Florkowski & Cuma Akbay, 2010. "Demand for cigarettes in Turkey: an application of count data models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 733-765, December.
    9. Escario, Jose Julian & Molina, Jose Alberto, 2004. "Modeling the optimal fiscal policy on tobacco consumption," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 81-93, January.
    10. C. W. Yang & C. B. Hawley & B. N. Huang & M. J. Hwang, 2011. "A Monopolist Can Never Price in the Inelastic Range of a Demand Curve or Can It?1," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 56(2), pages 108-117, November.

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