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NiGEM Topical Feature 1: Modelling the impact of the American Rescue Plan in NiGEM

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  • Holland, Dawn Nicole
  • Sanchez Juanino, Patricia
  • Liadze, Iana
  • Naisbitt, Barry

Abstract

The incoming US President has announced a $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus to the economy that amounts to around 9 per cent of GDP. Using our NiGEM model we estimate that this stimulus could add around 3 percentage points to US GDP growth and, including spillover effects from trade, just under 1 percentage point to global GDP growth in its first year. Higher inflation will also result, with a key factor likely to be how the fiscal transfers affect the spending of income-constrained households

Suggested Citation

  • Holland, Dawn Nicole & Sanchez Juanino, Patricia & Liadze, Iana & Naisbitt, Barry, 2021. "NiGEM Topical Feature 1: Modelling the impact of the American Rescue Plan in NiGEM," National Institute Global Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 2, pages 23-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrb:i:2:y:2021:p:23-29
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