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Box B: Forecasting Average Weekly Earnings

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  • Meg Tulloch

Abstract

In this box, I discuss work I carried out as part of my MSc, which aimed to enhance the accuracy of the forecasting model used in the 'NIESR Monthly Wage Growth Tracker' to predict UK wage growth. Each month, NIESR publishes a series of headline economic indicator trackers, which include forecasts for the near future and analysis of the current economic environment in the United Kingdom. One of these series is the Wage Growth Tracker, where the headline indicator is Average Weekly Earnings in the United Kingdom. Over the past three decades, wages and prices have experienced several shocks that economists largely failed to forecast due to the challenging economic environment (Haskel et al., 2023). The pandemic introduced new dynamics among variables and added noise to labour-market data, making wage growth forecasting an altogether different task when compared to the pre-pandemic period.

Suggested Citation

  • Meg Tulloch, 2025. "Box B: Forecasting Average Weekly Earnings," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 17, pages 17-21.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesra:i:17:y:2025:p:17-21
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    File URL: https://niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/NIESR-UK-Economic-Outlook-Winter-2025.pdf?ver=6IxB2BfLCBPLjh6eWxCN
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