Box B: Examining Rising Inactivity and NHS Waiting Times

The rise in economic inactivity has played a frontline role in labour market conditions since the pandemic. While part of this rise can be explained by Covid itself, such as people using lockdowns as an opportunity to re-enter higher education, inactivity has not returned to pre-pandemic levels four years later. Chief among the explanations is ill-health (both temporary and long-term), which has remained at an elevated level since Covid. As of the end of 2023, 71 per cent of the growth in total inactivity since the pandemic can be attributed to ill-health. While many explanations have been provided attempting to explain why this is, one argument has questioned the potential role of higher NHS waiting lists. This seems like a possible explanation, as waiting times at an all-time high could be preventing people from receiving access to the treatment they need to remain in the labour market. This box aims to assess the evidence behind this. There was a clear spike in both the total number of people on NHS waiting lists and those inactive due to ill-health immediately after the first lockdown in 2020 (Figure B1). While the former can be explained by a reprioritisation away from general healthcare treatment towards the Covid-19 response and the latter by the effect of the virus itself, their sustained levels since the vaccine rollout requires further examination.