IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nrb/journl/v28y2016i2p61.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stock Market Efficiency in Nepal: A Variance Ratio Test

Author

Listed:
  • Jeetendra Dangol, Ph.D.

    (School of Management, Tribhuvan University)

Abstract

The paper examines random-walk behaviour and weak-form market efficiency on daily and weekly market returns of All Share Price Index and nine sectoral indices in the Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) using Lo and MacKinlay (1988) variance-ratio tests and corrected data as suggested by Miller et al. (1994). The study finds that the random-walk hypothesis is strongly rejected for weekly indices of the observed and corrected returns. It shows that market participants have opportunities to predict future price and earn abnormal returns from the Nepalese stock market. Whereas, overall and development banking sectors support the random-walk hypothesis in daily observed and corrected returns. It indicates that technical analysis may not be fruitful to earn excess returns in overall and development banking sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeetendra Dangol, Ph.D., 2016. "Stock Market Efficiency in Nepal: A Variance Ratio Test," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 28(2), pages 61-74, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nrb:journl:v:28:y:2016:i:2:p:61
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nrb.org.np/contents/uploads/2019/12/5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    2. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    3. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
    4. Andrew Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2009. "Efficiency in the Australian stock market, 1875-2006: a note on extreme long-run random walk behaviour," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 301-306.
    5. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    6. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    7. Miller, Merton H & Muthuswamy, Jayaram & Whaley, Robert E, 1994. "Mean Reversion of Standard & Poor's 500 Index Basis Changes: Arbitrage-Induced or Statistical Illusion?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 479-513, June.
    8. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. "Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
    9. Jorge L. Urrutia, 1995. "Tests Of Random Walk And Market Efficiency For Latin American Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(3), pages 299-309, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Felix Schindler, 2014. "Persistence and Predictability in UK House Price Movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 132-163, January.
    2. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Felix Schindler, 2013. "Predictability and Persistence of the Price Movements of the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 44-90, January.
    4. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    5. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2009. "On the random walk characteristics of stock returns in India," MPRA Paper 46499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Alexander S. Sangare, 2005. "Efficience des marchés : un siècle après Bachelier," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 81(4), pages 107-132.
    7. Pernagallo, Giuseppe & Torrisi, Benedetto, 2020. "Blindfolded monkeys or financial analysts: Who is worth your money? New evidence on informational inefficiencies in the U.S. stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
    8. Francesco Guidi & Rakesh Gupta & Suneel Maheshwari, 2011. "Weak-form Market Efficiency and Calendar Anomalies for Eastern Europe Equity Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 10(3), pages 337-389, December.
    9. Manolis Kavussanos & Everton Dockery, 2001. "A multivariate test for stock market efficiency: the case of ASE," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 573-579.
    10. Ghada Abbas, 2014. "Testing Random Walk Behavior in the Damascus Securities Exchange," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 317-325, October.
    11. Chiang, Raymond & Liu, Peter & Okunev, John, 1995. "Modelling mean reversion of asset prices towards their fundamental value," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1327-1340, November.
    12. Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan & Everton Dockery, 2021. "Testing for efficiency in the Saudi stock market: does corporate governance change matter?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 61-90, July.
    13. Gábor Bóta & Mihály Ormos, 2015. "Development of stock market pricing in Central and Eastern Europe through two decades after the transition," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 685-708, November.
    14. Sandrine Jacob Leal, 2015. "Fundamentalists, chartists and asset pricing anomalies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(11), pages 1837-1850, November.
    15. Fatma SIALA GUERMEZI, & Amani BOUSSAADA, 2016. "The Weak Form Of Informational Efficiency: Case Of Tunisian Banking Sector," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 5(1), pages 1-1, January.
    16. Leković Miljan, 2018. "Evidence for and Against the Validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 56(3), pages 369-387, September.
    17. José Carlos Dias & Luís Lopes & Vitor Martins & José Manuel Benzinho, 2004. "Efficiency tests in the Iberian stock markets," Finance 0406001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Liam A. Gallagher & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices: Evidence from Assessing Macroeconomic Shocks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(2), pages 345-362, October.
    19. Basher ABUZAROUR, 2001. "Testing Random Walk Behavior and Market Efficiency: Evidence from New Emerging Equity Markets in the Middle East," Middle East and North Africa 330400002, EcoMod.
    20. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market efficiency; Random-walk; Variance ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nrb:journl:v:28:y:2016:i:2:p:61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Publication Division NRB (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nrbgvnp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.