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Acquisitions as Lotteries? The Selection of Target-Firm Risk and its Impact on Merger Outcomes

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  • Schneider, Christoph
  • Spalt, Oliver

Abstract

From 1987 to 2008, riskier firms were more likely to be taken over. Yet, on average, the acquirer declined in value by 2.8% when it bought a “risky target†(the third tercile, having an annualized idiosyncratic volatility of 61% or more), but only by 0.6% when it bought a “safe target†(the first tercile, 38% or less). The effect was even stronger for risky targets with positively skewed expected returns. The value difference is robust to controlling for acquirer and target characteristics, and carries over to the joint value change. Riskier target acquisitions also had lower post-acquisition accounting returns. An acquiring-firm CEO fixed effect in the data suggests CEO preferences play a role, which we can trace to several proxies for gambling propensity.

Suggested Citation

  • Schneider, Christoph & Spalt, Oliver, 2017. "Acquisitions as Lotteries? The Selection of Target-Firm Risk and its Impact on Merger Outcomes," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 6(1), pages 77-132, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:now:jnlcfr:104.00000035
    DOI: 10.1561/104.00000035
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mitton, Todd & Vorkink, Keith & Wright, Ian, 2018. "Neighborhood effects on speculative behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 42-61.
    2. Maik Dierkes & Jan Krupski & Sebastian Schroen & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2024. "Volatility-dependent probability weighting and the dynamics of the pricing kernel puzzle," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-35, April.
    3. Lei, Guangyong & Qiu, Baoyin & Yu, Junli & Zuo, Jingjing, 2023. ""Hitting the jackpot" in corporate tax strategy: A perspective on gambling preferences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Zuo, Jingjing & Qiu, Baoyin & Zhu, Guoyiming & Lei, Guangyong, 2023. "Local speculative culture and stock price crash risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Mussbach, Emil & Westheide, Christian, 2020. "Corporate insider trading and return skewness," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    6. Thomas R. Berry-Stölzle & Jianren Xu, 2022. "Local religious beliefs and insurance companies’ risk-taking behaviour," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 47(2), pages 242-278, April.
    7. Hongying Yin & Xiaoyun Gong & Xiaofeng Quan & Annie Y. S. Li, 2024. "Local gambling preferences and corporate tax avoidance: Evidence from China," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3413-3443, July.
    8. Renneboog, Luc & Vansteenkiste, Cara, 2019. "Failure and success in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 650-699.
    9. Jinshuai Hu & Siqi Li & Terry Shevlin, 2023. "How does the market for corporate control impact tax avoidance? Evidence from international M&A laws," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 340-383, March.
    10. Gao, Lei & Wang, Ying & Zhao, Jing, 2017. "Does local religiosity affect organizational risk-taking? Evidence from the hedge fund industry," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 1-22.
    11. Montinari, Natalia & Rancan, Michela, 2020. "A friend is a treasure: On the interplay of social distance and monetary incentives when risk is taken on behalf of others," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    12. Guilong Cai & Wenfei Li & Zhenyang Tang, 2020. "Religion and the Method of Earnings Management: Evidence from China," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 71-90, January.
    13. Beckmann, Lars & Hark, Paul F., 2024. "ChatGPT and the banking business: Insights from the US stock market on potential implications for banks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Behavioral Corporate Finance; Mergers and Acquisitions; Gambling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G39 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Other

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