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The Calculus of the Security Dilemma

Author

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  • Acharya, Avidit
  • Ramsay, Kristopher W.

Abstract

Some scholars known as offensive realists claim that in the uncertainty of world politics, trust and cooperation between states is extremely unlikely. Others, such as defensive realists , claim that rational states are capable of finding ways to counteract the complications created by misperceptions and distrust, and to reduce uncertainty to levels where it no longer inhibits cooperation. In this paper, we construct a formal model to show how in some situations cooperation between states is indeed very unlikely: even in the presence of minor misperceptions, states fail to cooperate. We then ask whether diplomacy (modeled as cheap talk) is able to remedy the failure. We show that in many situations, allowing the countries to communicate prior to taking their actions does not enable them to cooperate.

Suggested Citation

  • Acharya, Avidit & Ramsay, Kristopher W., 2013. "The Calculus of the Security Dilemma," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 8(2), pages 183-203, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:now:jlqjps:100.00011066
    DOI: 10.1561/100.00011066
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    Cited by:

    1. Yann Rébillé & Lionel Richefort, 2015. "Influence and Social Tragedy in Networks," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 125(6), pages 811-833.
    2. Deepal Basak & Zhen Zhou, 2020. "Diffusing Coordination Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(1), pages 271-297, January.
    3. Kong, NGUYEN To Hong, 2021. "State-to-state Trust in Post-leadership Change: Case Study of China-Japan Relations, 2009-2019," OSF Preprints hdbcy, Center for Open Science.
    4. Ambrus, Attila & Lu, Shih En, 2014. "Almost fully revealing cheap talk with imperfectly informed senders," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 174-189.

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