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Long cycles, the soviet authority and economists: From the history of discussions of the 1920s

Author

Listed:
  • Mustafin, A.

    (HSE University, Moscow, Russia
    RANEPA, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

In perspective of intellectual history, the article studies Soviet discussions on long cycles. The study analyzes in detail the connection between Kondratiev's economic and epistemological ideas, as well as the connection between the debate on long cycles and the political conjuncture of the 1920s. In particular, the article shows that criticism from L. D. Trotsky and Soviet economists prompted N. D. Kondratiev to turn to the issue of epistemology. The article also shows that we should not take the methodological criticism of Kondratiev's opponents seriously because they were biased against him. In the mid-1920s, Soviet economists' negative attitude to the idea of long cycles reflects the conflict between N. D. Kondratiev and employees of the State Planning Committee, which escalated under the influence of the inner-party struggle. The attention of L. D. Trotsky, in its turn, was attracted to the idea of long cycle in connection with forecasts both attributed to N. D. Kondratiev and those formulated by him. The article publishes a previously unknown forecast, declared by N. D. Kondratiev in 1926, about the upcoming economic crisis and the dynamics of military and social conflicts at the turn of the decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustafin, A., 2022. "Long cycles, the soviet authority and economists: From the history of discussions of the 1920s," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 57(5), pages 126-140.
    • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2022:i:57:p:126-140
    DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2022-57-5-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. W. W. Rostow, 1951. "The Historical Analysis Of The Terms Of Trade," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 4(1), pages 53-76, August.
    2. N. Makasheva., 2014. "Integrating Economic Cycles Theory with Equilibrium Theory," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 1.
    3. Carlota Perez, 2010. "Technological revolutions and techno-economic paradigms," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 34(1), pages 185-202, January.
    4. Belyanova, E. & Makasheva, N., 2020. "The constructivist project 'Econometrics-1930': Implementation of the impossible or realization of inevitable?," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 47(3), pages 158-177.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kondratiev cycles; inner-party struggle; economic discussions; Trotskyism; intellectual history;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B1 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925
    • B24 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Socialist; Marxist; Scraffian
    • B3 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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