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Reform of 2010: are the Long-Term Problems of the Pension System Properly Addressed?

Author

Listed:
  • Gurvich, E.

    (Finance Academy, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

The paper evaluates short-term implications of pension reforms made in 2010, and long-term scenarios of pension system development. We find that if size of pension transfer is fixed, prolonged fall of the replacement rate is expected, which makes situation politically unsustainable. Keeping flat replacement rate requires either increase of pension transfer size by 1 percentage point of GDP each 5 years, or raising rate of pension contributions per 1 percentage point annually. Using broad range of measures, including increase in retirement age is suggested. Raising retirement age to 62 years for men and 60 years for women is substantiated, basing on analysis of demographic indicators. Effect of this measure is estimated.

Suggested Citation

  • Gurvich, E., 2010. "Reform of 2010: are the Long-Term Problems of the Pension System Properly Addressed?," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 6, pages 98-119.
    • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2010:i:6:p:98-119
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    File URL: http://www.econorus.org/repec/journl/2010-6-98-119r.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. O. Dmitrieva & N. Petukhova & D. Ushakov., 2010. "The Transition from Distributive Pension System to Accumulative Type: The Results and Efficiency Forecast," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 4.
    2. E. Gurvich., 2007. "Prospects for the Russia’s Pension System," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 9.
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    Cited by:

    1. Valery P. Chichkanov & Elena V. Chistova & Alexander N. Tyrsin & Anatoly N. Stepanov, 2019. "Consequences of Raising The Retirement Age for the Labor Market in the Regions of Russia," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 15(1), pages 31-45.
    2. Ekaterina A. Klepikova, 2015. "Estimating the Relationship between Health and Employment of Russian People in Pensionable Age," HSE Working papers WP BRP 100/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    3. Gorlin, Yu. & Lyashok, V., 2019. "Pension Gambit," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 42(2), pages 138-148.
    4. Yuri Ì. Gorlin & Elena E. Grishina & Victor Y. Lyashok & Vitaly V. Fedorov, 2017. "Increase in Retirement Age: Experience of Foreign Countries and the Assessment of the Effects for Russia," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 6, pages 85-97, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russia's pension system; pension reform; retirement age;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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