Author
Listed:
- Luciana V. Gatti
(National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Nuclear and Energy Research Institute (IPEN))
- Camilla L. Cunha
(National Institute for Space Research (INPE))
- Luciano Marani
(National Institute for Space Research (INPE))
- Henrique L. G. Cassol
(National Institute for Space Research (INPE))
- Cassiano Gustavo Messias
(National Institute for Space Research (INPE))
- Egidio Arai
(National Institute for Space Research (INPE))
- A. Scott Denning
(Colorado State University)
- Luciana S. Soler
(National Institute for Space Research (INPE))
- Claudio Almeida
(National Institute for Space Research (INPE))
- Alberto Setzer
(National Institute for Space Research (INPE))
- Lucas Gatti Domingues
(Nuclear and Energy Research Institute (IPEN)
GNS Science)
- Luana S. Basso
(National Institute for Space Research (INPE))
- John B. Miller
(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA))
- Manuel Gloor
(University of Leeds)
- Caio S. C. Correia
(National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Nuclear and Energy Research Institute (IPEN))
- Graciela Tejada
(National Institute for Space Research (INPE))
- Raiane A. L. Neves
(National Institute for Space Research (INPE))
- Raoni Rajao
(Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais)
- Felipe Nunes
(Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais)
- Britaldo S. S. Filho
(Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais)
- Jair Schmitt
(Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais)
- Carlos Nobre
(University of São Paulo (USP))
- Sergio M. Corrêa
(Rio de Janeiro State University (UERJ))
- Alber H. Sanches
(National Institute for Space Research (INPE))
- Luiz E. O. C. Aragão
(National Institute for Space Research (INPE))
- Liana Anderson
(Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN))
- Celso Randow
(National Institute for Space Research (INPE))
- Stephane P. Crispim
(National Institute for Space Research (INPE))
- Francine M. Silva
(National Institute for Space Research (INPE))
- Guilherme B. M. Machado
(National Institute for Space Research (INPE))
Abstract
The Amazon forest carbon sink is declining, mainly as a result of land-use and climate change1–4. Here we investigate how changes in law enforcement of environmental protection policies may have affected the Amazonian carbon balance between 2010 and 2018 compared with 2019 and 2020, based on atmospheric CO2 vertical profiles5,6, deforestation7 and fire data8, as well as infraction notices related to illegal deforestation9. We estimate that Amazonia carbon emissions increased from a mean of 0.24 ± 0.08 PgC year−1 in 2010–2018 to 0.44 ± 0.10 PgC year−1 in 2019 and 0.52 ± 0.10 PgC year−1 in 2020 (± uncertainty). The observed increases in deforestation were 82% and 77% (94% accuracy) and burned area were 14% and 42% in 2019 and 2020 compared with the 2010–2018 mean, respectively. We find that the numbers of notifications of infractions against flora decreased by 30% and 54% and fines paid by 74% and 89% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Carbon losses during 2019–2020 were comparable with those of the record warm El Niño (2015–2016) without an extreme drought event. Statistical tests show that the observed differences between the 2010–2018 mean and 2019–2020 are unlikely to have arisen by chance. The changes in the carbon budget of Amazonia during 2019–2020 were mainly because of western Amazonia becoming a carbon source. Our results indicate that a decline in law enforcement led to increases in deforestation, biomass burning and forest degradation, which increased carbon emissions and enhanced drying and warming of the Amazon forests.
Suggested Citation
Luciana V. Gatti & Camilla L. Cunha & Luciano Marani & Henrique L. G. Cassol & Cassiano Gustavo Messias & Egidio Arai & A. Scott Denning & Luciana S. Soler & Claudio Almeida & Alberto Setzer & Lucas G, 2023.
"Increased Amazon carbon emissions mainly from decline in law enforcement,"
Nature, Nature, vol. 621(7978), pages 318-323, September.
Handle:
RePEc:nat:nature:v:621:y:2023:i:7978:d:10.1038_s41586-023-06390-0
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06390-0
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