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Future temperature extremes threaten land vertebrates

Author

Listed:
  • Gopal Murali

    (Ben-Gurion University of the Negev
    Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)

  • Takuya Iwamura

    (University of Geneva
    Oregon State University)

  • Shai Meiri

    (Tel Aviv University
    Tel Aviv University)

  • Uri Roll

    (Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)

Abstract

The frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme thermal events are increasing and are projected to further increase by the end of the century1,2. Despite the considerable consequences of temperature extremes on biological systems3–8, we do not know which species and locations are most exposed worldwide. Here we provide a global assessment of land vertebrates’ exposures to future extreme thermal events. We use daily maximum temperature data from 1950 to 2099 to quantify future exposure to high frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme thermal events to land vertebrates. Under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5–8.5); 4.4 °C warmer world), 41.0% of all land vertebrates (31.1% mammals, 25.8% birds, 55.5% amphibians and 51.0% reptiles) will be exposed to extreme thermal events beyond their historical levels in at least half their distribution by 2099. Under intermediate-high (SSP3–7.0; 3.6 °C warmer world) and intermediate (SSP2–4.5; 2.7 °C warmer world) emission scenarios, estimates for all vertebrates are 28.8% and 15.1%, respectively. Importantly, a low-emission future (SSP1–2.6, 1.8 °C warmer world) will greatly reduce the overall exposure of vertebrates (6.1% of species) and can fully prevent exposure in many species assemblages. Mid-latitude assemblages (desert, shrubland, and grassland biomes), rather than tropics9,10, will face the most severe exposure to future extreme thermal events. By 2099, under SSP5–8.5, on average 3,773 species of land vertebrates (11.2%) will face extreme thermal events for more than half a year period. Overall, future extreme thermal events will force many species and assemblages into constant severe thermal stress. Deep greenhouse gas emissions cuts are urgently needed to limit species’ exposure to thermal extremes.

Suggested Citation

  • Gopal Murali & Takuya Iwamura & Shai Meiri & Uri Roll, 2023. "Future temperature extremes threaten land vertebrates," Nature, Nature, vol. 615(7952), pages 461-467, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:615:y:2023:i:7952:d:10.1038_s41586-022-05606-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05606-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang Yang & Chenchen Wu & Tongrui An & Tianxiang Yue, 2024. "Characteristics of Climate Change in Poyang Lake Basin and Its Impact on Net Primary Productivity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-16, October.
    2. Andreas Schwarz Meyer & Alex L. Pigot & Cory Merow & Kristin Kaschner & Cristina Garilao & Kathleen Kesner-Reyes & Christopher H. Trisos, 2024. "Temporal dynamics of climate change exposure and opportunities for global marine biodiversity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Chiara Mio & Luciana Oranges Cezarino, 2023. "Competencies for Sustainable Development Goals Accounting: Educating public management for disclosure and reporting," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2023(2 Suppl.), pages 133-160.

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