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Ensemble modeling of extreme seasonal temperature trends in Iran under socio-economic scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Kamangar

    (Shahid Beheshti University)

  • Mahmud Ahmadi

    (Shahid Beheshti University)

  • Hamidreza Rabiei-Dastjerdi

    (University College
    Isfahan University of Medical Sciences)

  • Zeinab Hazbavi

    (University of Mohaghegh Ardabili)

Abstract

Highlights A new ensemble model was introduced and evaluated for projecting minimum and maximum temperatures in Iran. Trends in minimum and maximum temperatures in the near term (2021–2040) were obtained using socio-economic scenarios of five models at 95 synoptic stations. The ensemble technique reduced the error of the models used in projection to an optimal extent.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Kamangar & Mahmud Ahmadi & Hamidreza Rabiei-Dastjerdi & Zeinab Hazbavi, 2025. "Ensemble modeling of extreme seasonal temperature trends in Iran under socio-economic scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(2), pages 1265-1288, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06830-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06830-8
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