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Plastic futures and their CO2 emissions

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Stegmann

    (Utrecht University
    PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research)

  • Vassilis Daioglou

    (Utrecht University
    PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Marc Londo

    (Utrecht University
    Netherlands Association for Renewable Energy)

  • Detlef P. Vuuren

    (Utrecht University
    PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Martin Junginger

    (Utrecht University)

Abstract

Plastics show the strongest production growth of all bulk materials and are already responsible for 4.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions1,2. If no new policies are implemented, we project a doubling of global plastic demand by 2050 and more than a tripling by 2100, with an almost equivalent increase in CO2 emissions. Here we analyse three alternative CO2 emission-mitigation pathways for the global plastics sector until 2100, covering the entire life cycle from production to waste management. Our results show that, through bio-based carbon sequestration in plastic products, a combination of biomass use and landfilling can achieve negative emissions in the long term; however, this involves continued reliance on primary feedstock. A circular economy approach without an additional bioeconomy push reduces resource consumption by 30% and achieves 10% greater emission reductions before 2050 while reducing the potential of negative emissions in the long term. A circular bioeconomy approach combining recycling with higher biomass use could ultimately turn the sector into a net carbon sink, while at the same time phasing out landfilling and reducing resource consumption. Our work improves the representation of material flows and the circular economy in global energy and emission models, and provides insight into long-term dynamics in the plastics sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Stegmann & Vassilis Daioglou & Marc Londo & Detlef P. Vuuren & Martin Junginger, 2022. "Plastic futures and their CO2 emissions," Nature, Nature, vol. 612(7939), pages 272-276, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:612:y:2022:i:7939:d:10.1038_s41586-022-05422-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05422-5
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yuuki Yoshimoto & Koki Kishimoto & Kanchan Kumar Sen & Takako Mochida & Andrew Chapman, 2023. "Toward Economically Efficient Carbon Reduction: Contrasting Greening Plastic Supply Chains with Alternative Energy Policy Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-19, September.
    2. Xiangdong Zhu & Litao Lin & Mingyue Pang & Chao Jia & Longlong Xia & Guosheng Shi & Shicheng Zhang & Yuanda Lu & Liming Sun & Fengbo Yu & Jie Gao & Zhelin He & Xuan Wu & Aodi Li & Liang Wang & Meiling, 2024. "Continuous and low-carbon production of biomass flash graphene," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Marianne Zanon-Zotin & Luiz Bernardo Baptista & Rebecca Draeger & Pedro R. R. Rochedo & Alexandre Szklo & Roberto Schaeffer, 2024. "Unaddressed non-energy use in the chemical industry can undermine fossil fuels phase-out," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. He, Hengyi & Liu, Peng & Nie, Baisheng & Zhao, Yulong & Wang, Lei & Liu, Xianfeng & Deng, Bozhi & Zhao, Zhengduo & Zhang, Hao & Zhao, Dan & Bao, Song, 2024. "Micromechanical property evolution and damage mechanism of coal subjected to ScCO2 treatment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    5. Li, Jie & Yu, Di & Pan, Lanjia & Xu, Xinhai & Wang, Xiaonan & Wang, Yin, 2023. "Recent advances in plastic waste pyrolysis for liquid fuel production: Critical factors and machine learning applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    6. Yutong Sun & Shangrong Jiang & Shouyang Wang, 2024. "The environmental impacts and sustainable pathways of the global diamond industry," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Mohammad Peydayesh, 2024. "Sustainable Materials via the Assembly of Biopolymeric Nanobuilding Blocks Valorized from Agri-Food Waste," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-11, February.
    8. Meng Jiang & Yuheng Cao & Changgong Liu & Dingjiang Chen & Wenji Zhou & Qian Wen & Hejiang Yu & Jian Jiang & Yucheng Ren & Shanying Hu & Edgar Hertwich & Bing Zhu, 2024. "Tracing fossil-based plastics, chemicals and fertilizers production in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    9. Emma A. R. Zuiderveen & Koen J. J. Kuipers & Carla Caldeira & Steef V. Hanssen & Mitchell K. Hulst & Melinda M. J. Jonge & Anestis Vlysidis & Rosalie Zelm & Serenella Sala & Mark A. J. Huijbregts, 2023. "The potential of emerging bio-based products to reduce environmental impacts," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-7, December.
    10. McLaughlin, Hope & Littlefield, Anna A. & Menefee, Maia & Kinzer, Austin & Hull, Tobias & Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Bazilian, Morgan D. & Kim, Jinsoo & Griffiths, Steven, 2023. "Carbon capture utilization and storage in review: Sociotechnical implications for a carbon reliant world," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    11. Evan Moore & Declan Colbert, 2024. "Ocean Plastics: Extraction, Characterization and Utilization of Macroalgae Biopolymers for Packaging Applications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-30, August.
    12. Anna Schulte & Benjamin Kampmann & Christina Galafton, 2023. "Measuring the Circularity and Impact Reduction Potential of Post-Industrial and Post-Consumer Recycled Plastics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-26, August.

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