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A decline in global CFC-11 emissions during 2018−2019

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen A. Montzka

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

  • Geoffrey S. Dutton

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    University of Colorado)

  • Robert W. Portmann

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

  • Martyn P. Chipperfield

    (University of Leeds
    University of Leeds)

  • Sean Davis

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

  • Wuhu Feng

    (University of Leeds
    University of Leeds)

  • Alistair J. Manning

    (Hadley Centre, Met Office)

  • Eric Ray

    (University of Colorado
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

  • Matthew Rigby

    (University of Bristol)

  • Bradley D. Hall

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

  • Carolina Siso

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    University of Colorado)

  • J. David Nance

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    University of Colorado)

  • Paul B. Krummel

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Jens Mühle

    (University of California)

  • Dickon Young

    (University of Bristol)

  • Simon O’Doherty

    (University of Bristol)

  • Peter K. Salameh

    (University of California)

  • Christina M. Harth

    (University of California)

  • Ronald G. Prinn

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Ray F. Weiss

    (University of California)

  • James W. Elkins

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

  • Helen Walter-Terrinoni

    (The Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute)

  • Christina Theodoridi

    (Natural Resources Defense Council)

Abstract

The atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) has been in decline since the production of ozone-depleting substances was phased out under the Montreal Protocol1,2. Since 2013, the concentration decline of CFC-11 slowed unexpectedly owing to increasing emissions, probably from unreported production, which, if sustained, would delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer1–12. Here we report an accelerated decline in the global mean CFC-11 concentration during 2019 and 2020, derived from atmospheric concentration measurements at remote sites around the world. We find that global CFC-11 emissions decreased by 18 ± 6 gigagrams per year (26 ± 9 per cent; one standard deviation) from 2018 to 2019, to a 2019 value (52 ± 10 gigagrams per year) that is similar to the 2008−2012 mean. The decline in global emissions suggests a substantial decrease in unreported CFC-11 production. If the sharp decline in unexpected global emissions and unreported production is sustained, any associated future ozone depletion is likely to be limited, despite an increase in the CFC-11 bank (the amount of CFC-11 produced, but not yet emitted) by 90 to 725 gigagrams by the beginning of 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen A. Montzka & Geoffrey S. Dutton & Robert W. Portmann & Martyn P. Chipperfield & Sean Davis & Wuhu Feng & Alistair J. Manning & Eric Ray & Matthew Rigby & Bradley D. Hall & Carolina Siso & J. D, 2021. "A decline in global CFC-11 emissions during 2018−2019," Nature, Nature, vol. 590(7846), pages 428-432, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:590:y:2021:i:7846:d:10.1038_s41586-021-03260-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03260-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Mei Yang & Ziwei Wang, 2023. "A corpus-based discourse analysis of China’s national image constructed by environmental news in The New York Times," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Minde An & Luke M. Western & Daniel Say & Liqu Chen & Tom Claxton & Anita L. Ganesan & Ryan Hossaini & Paul B. Krummel & Alistair J. Manning & Jens Mühle & Simon O’Doherty & Ronald G. Prinn & Ray F. W, 2021. "Rapid increase in dichloromethane emissions from China inferred through atmospheric observations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.

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