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Asia’s shrinking glaciers protect large populations from drought stress

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  • Hamish D. Pritchard

    (British Antarctic Survey)

Abstract

About 800 million people depend in part on meltwater from the thousands of glaciers in the high mountains of Asia. Water stress makes this region vulnerable to drought, but glaciers are a uniquely drought-resilient source of water. Here I show that seasonal glacier meltwater is equivalent to the basic needs of 221 ± 59 million people, or most of the annual municipal and industrial needs of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. During drought summers, meltwater dominates water inputs to the upper Indus, Aral and Chu/Issyk-Kul river basins. This reduces the risk of social instability, conflict and sudden migrations triggered by water scarcity, which is already associated with the large, rapidly growing populations and hydro-economies of these basins. Regional meltwater production is, however, unsustainably high—at 1.6 times the balance rate—and is expected to increase in future decades before ultimately declining. These results update and reinforce a previous publication in Nature on this topic, which was retracted after an inadvertent error was discovered.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamish D. Pritchard, 2019. "Asia’s shrinking glaciers protect large populations from drought stress," Nature, Nature, vol. 569(7758), pages 649-654, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:569:y:2019:i:7758:d:10.1038_s41586-019-1240-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1240-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Kairui Guo & Yong Huang & Dan Chen, 2022. "Analysis of the Expansion Characteristics of Rural Settlements Based on Scale Growth Function in Himalayan Region," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-17, March.
    2. Liu, Mengyu & Zhou, Xiong & Huang, Guohe & Li, Yongping, 2024. "The increasing water stress projected for China could shift the agriculture and manufacturing industry geographically," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124431, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Ekaterina P. Rets & Ivan N. Durmanov & Maria B. Kireeva & Andrew M. Smirnov & Viktor V. Popovnin, 2020. "Past ‘peak water’ in the North Caucasus: deglaciation drives a reduction in glacial runoff impacting summer river runoff and peak discharges," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2135-2151, December.
    4. Zhirong Chen & Binghua Gong & Jiayi Jiang & Zhifeng Liu & Kelong Chen, 2021. "Dynamics of the Urban Water Footprint on the Tibetan Plateau: A Case Study of Xining, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-15, April.
    5. Muhammad Shafeeque & Abid Sarwar & Abdul Basit & Abdelmoneim Zakaria Mohamed & Muhammad Waseem Rasheed & Muhammad Usman Khan & Noman Ali Buttar & Naeem Saddique & Mohammad Irfan Asim & Rehan Mehmood S, 2022. "Quantifying the Impact of the Billion Tree Afforestation Project (BTAP) on the Water Yield and Sediment Load in the Tarbela Reservoir of Pakistan Using the SWAT Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-20, September.
    6. Bo Su & Cunde Xiao & Deliang Chen & Dahe Qin & Yongjian Ding, 2019. "Cryosphere Services and Human Well-Being," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-23, August.
    7. Wanlu Liu & Lulu Liu & Jiangbo Gao, 2020. "Adapting to climate change: gaps and strategies for Central Asia," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 1439-1459, December.
    8. Jinglin Zhang & Wei Zhang & Shiwei Liu & Weiming Kong & Wei Zhang, 2022. "Cryosphere Services to Advance the National SDG Priorities in Himalaya-Karakoram Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Xiaowei Lyu & Yong Zhang & Huanhuan Wang & Xin Wang, 2024. "Mass Balance of Maritime Glaciers in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau during Recent Decades," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-23, August.
    10. Muhammad Fraz Ismail & Bibi S. Naz & Michel Wortmann & Markus Disse & Laura C. Bowling & Wolfgang Bogacki, 2020. "Comparison of two model calibration approaches and their influence on future projections under climate change in the Upper Indus Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1227-1246, December.

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