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Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Proctor

    (University of California, Berkeley
    University of California, Berkeley)

  • Solomon Hsiang

    (University of California, Berkeley
    National Bureau of Economic Research)

  • Jennifer Burney

    (University of California, San Diego)

  • Marshall Burke

    (National Bureau of Economic Research
    Stanford University)

  • Wolfram Schlenker

    (National Bureau of Economic Research
    Columbia University)

Abstract

Solar radiation management is increasingly considered to be an option for managing global temperatures1,2, yet the economic effects of ameliorating climatic changes by scattering sunlight back to space remain largely unknown3. Although solar radiation management may increase crop yields by reducing heat stress4, the effects of concomitant changes in available sunlight have never been empirically estimated. Here we use the volcanic eruptions that inspired modern solar radiation management proposals as natural experiments to provide the first estimates, to our knowledge, of how the stratospheric sulfate aerosols created by the eruptions of El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo altered the quantity and quality of global sunlight, and how these changes in sunlight affected global crop yields. We find that the sunlight-mediated effect of stratospheric sulfate aerosols on yields is negative for both C4 (maize) and C3 (soy, rice and wheat) crops. Applying our yield model to a solar radiation management scenario based on stratospheric sulfate aerosols, we find that projected mid-twenty-first century damages due to scattering sunlight caused by solar radiation management are roughly equal in magnitude to benefits from cooling. This suggests that solar radiation management—if deployed using stratospheric sulfate aerosols similar to those emitted by the volcanic eruptions it seeks to mimic—would, on net, attenuate little of the global agricultural damage from climate change. Our approach could be extended to study the effects of solar radiation management on other global systems, such as human health or ecosystem function.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Proctor & Solomon Hsiang & Jennifer Burney & Marshall Burke & Wolfram Schlenker, 2018. "Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions," Nature, Nature, vol. 560(7719), pages 480-483, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:560:y:2018:i:7719:d:10.1038_s41586-018-0417-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0417-3
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jim Ormond, 2020. "Geoengineering super low carbon cows: food and the corporate carbon economy in a low carbon world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 135-153, November.
    2. Babatunde J. Abiodun & Romaric C. Odoulami & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Olumuyiwa A. Oloniyo & Abayomi A. Abatan & Mark New & Christopher Lennard & Pinto Izidine & Temitope S. Egbebiyi & Douglas G. MacMar, 2021. "Potential impacts of stratospheric aerosol injection on drought risk managements over major river basins in Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-19, December.
    3. Guidetti, Bruna & Pereda, Paula & Severnini, Edson R., 2020. "Health Shocks under Hospital Capacity Constraint: Evidence from Air Pollution in Sao Paulo, Brazil," IZA Discussion Papers 13211, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Marilou Jobin & Michael Siegrist, 2020. "Support for the Deployment of Climate Engineering: A Comparison of Ten Different Technologies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 1058-1078, May.
    5. Eyal Frank & Anant Sudarshan, 2024. "The Social Costs of Keystone Species Collapse: Evidence from the Decline of Vultures in India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(10), pages 3007-3040, October.
    6. Katherine Dagon & Daniel P. Schrag, 2019. "Quantifying the effects of solar geoengineering on vegetation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 235-251, March.
    7. Bruna Morais Guidetti & Paula Carvalho Pereda, Edson Roberto Severnini, 2021. "Health Shocks under Hospital Capacity Constraints: Evidence from Air Pollution in São Paulo, Brazil," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2021_05, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    8. repec:ags:aaea22:336005 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Colin J. Carlson & Rita Colwell & Mohammad Sharif Hossain & Mohammed Mofizur Rahman & Alan Robock & Sadie J. Ryan & Mohammad Shafiul Alam & Christopher H. Trisos, 2022. "Solar geoengineering could redistribute malaria risk in developing countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    10. Scott Knowles & Mark Skidmore, 2019. "A primer on weather and climate intervention for economists," CESifo Working Paper Series 7586, CESifo.

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