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Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents

Author

Listed:
  • Nerilie J. Abram

    (Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University
    ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Australian National University)

  • Helen V. McGregor

    (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong)

  • Jessica E. Tierney

    (University of Arizona
    Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

  • Michael N. Evans

    (University of Maryland)

  • Nicholas P. McKay

    (School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University)

  • Darrell S. Kaufman

    (School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University)

Abstract

The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-ad 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Nerilie J. Abram & Helen V. McGregor & Jessica E. Tierney & Michael N. Evans & Nicholas P. McKay & Darrell S. Kaufman, 2016. "Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents," Nature, Nature, vol. 536(7617), pages 411-418, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:536:y:2016:i:7617:d:10.1038_nature19082
    DOI: 10.1038/nature19082
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    Cited by:

    1. Ameur, Hachmi Ben & Han, Xuyuan & Liu, Zhenya & Peillex, Jonathan, 2022. "When did global warming start? A new baseline for carbon budgeting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    2. Yue Sui & Yuting Chen, 2022. "Signals in temperature extremes emerge in China during the last millennium based on CMIP5 simulations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Brenda Rojas-Delgado & Monica Alonso & Hortensia Amaris & Juan de Santiago, 2019. "Wave Power Output Smoothing through the Use of a High-Speed Kinetic Buffer," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-28, June.
    4. Jennifer S. Walker & Robert E. Kopp & Christopher M. Little & Benjamin P. Horton, 2022. "Timing of emergence of modern rates of sea-level rise by 1863," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.

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