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Changes in plant community composition lag behind climate warming in lowland forests

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  • Romain Bertrand

    (AgroParisTech, ENGREF, UMR1092 Laboratoire d’Étude des Ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB), 14 rue Girardet
    INRA, Centre de Nancy, UMR1092 Laboratoire d’Étude des Ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB))

  • Jonathan Lenoir

    (Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity Group, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114)

  • Christian Piedallu

    (AgroParisTech, ENGREF, UMR1092 Laboratoire d’Étude des Ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB), 14 rue Girardet
    INRA, Centre de Nancy, UMR1092 Laboratoire d’Étude des Ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB))

  • Gabriela Riofrío-Dillon

    (AgroParisTech, ENGREF, UMR1092 Laboratoire d’Étude des Ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB), 14 rue Girardet
    INRA, Centre de Nancy, UMR1092 Laboratoire d’Étude des Ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB))

  • Patrice de Ruffray

    (CNRS, Institut de Biologie Moléculaire des Plantes (IBMP), Université de Strasbourg (UDS), 12 rue du Général Zimmer)

  • Claude Vidal

    (Inventaire Forestier National, Château des Barres)

  • Jean-Claude Pierrat

    (AgroParisTech, ENGREF, UMR1092 Laboratoire d’Étude des Ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB), 14 rue Girardet
    INRA, Centre de Nancy, UMR1092 Laboratoire d’Étude des Ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB))

  • Jean-Claude Gégout

    (AgroParisTech, ENGREF, UMR1092 Laboratoire d’Étude des Ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB), 14 rue Girardet
    INRA, Centre de Nancy, UMR1092 Laboratoire d’Étude des Ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB))

Abstract

Lowland forests overtaken by climate change Climate change is causing a shift in plant species distributions, but the speed at which this happens depends on local conditions. A 2009 Nature paper ( go.nature.com/yuz2we ) showed that the velocity of climate change is higher in lowland than in highland areas, suggesting that the lag behind climate warming might be greater for lowland species than that for highland species. This suspicion is confirmed in a study of forests distributed across France. A comparison of temperature trends against temperatures reconstructed from thousands of species assemblages across a 44-year period (1965–2008) indicated a temperature lag between the climate and plant community composition in lowland forests that was more than three times that seen in highland forests. This finding has implications for conservation policy. Attention has focused on mountain-top extinctions as a likely consequence of climate warming, but the inertia of forest plant communities suggests that species in lowland forest ecosystems are also at risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Romain Bertrand & Jonathan Lenoir & Christian Piedallu & Gabriela Riofrío-Dillon & Patrice de Ruffray & Claude Vidal & Jean-Claude Pierrat & Jean-Claude Gégout, 2011. "Changes in plant community composition lag behind climate warming in lowland forests," Nature, Nature, vol. 479(7374), pages 517-520, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:479:y:2011:i:7374:d:10.1038_nature10548
    DOI: 10.1038/nature10548
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcelo Leon & Gino Cornejo & Micaela Calderón & Erika González-Carrión & Hector Florez, 2022. "Effect of Deforestation on Climate Change: A Co-Integration and Causality Approach with Time Series," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-14, September.
    2. Lucie Kuczynski & Mathieu Chevalier & Pascal Laffaille & Marion Legrand & Gaël Grenouillet, 2017. "Indirect effect of temperature on fish population abundances through phenological changes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, April.
    3. Changjun Gu & Yili Zhang & Linshan Liu & Lanhui Li & Shicheng Li & Binghua Zhang & Bohao Cui & Mohan Kumar Rai, 2021. "Qualifying Land Use and Land Cover Dynamics and Their Impacts on Ecosystem Service in Central Himalaya Transboundary Landscape Based on Google Earth Engine," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-21, February.
    4. Albert Ayorinde Abegunde, 2017. "Local communities’ belief in climate change in a rural region of Sub-Saharan Africa," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1489-1522, August.
    5. Matthew Chard & Kris French & John Martin & Richard E Major, 2018. "Rain drives foraging decisions of an urban exploiter," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(4), pages 1-14, April.
    6. Sara J. Germain & James A. Lutz, 2020. "Climate extremes may be more important than climate means when predicting species range shifts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 579-598, November.
    7. Alistair G. Auffret & Jens-Christian Svenning, 2022. "Climate warming has compounded plant responses to habitat conversion in northern Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Zhang, Pengyi & Liang, Yu & Liu, Bo & Ma, Tianxiao & Wu, Mia M., 2023. "A coupled modelling framework for predicting tree species’ altitudinal migration velocity in montane forest," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 484(C).
    9. Arayaselassie Abebe Semu & Tamrat Bekele & Ermias Lulekal & Paloma Cariñanos & Sileshi Nemomissa, 2021. "Projected Impact of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability of a Vulnerable Endemic Vachellia negrii (pic.serm.) kyal. & Boatwr (Fabaceae) in Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-16, October.
    10. Emily Fung & Pablo Imbach & Lenin Corrales & Sergio Vilchez & Nelson Zamora & Freddy Argotty & Lee Hannah & Zayra Ramos, 2017. "Mapping conservation priorities and connectivity pathways under climate change for tropical ecosystems," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 77-92, March.
    11. Erickson, Adam & Nitschke, Craig & Coops, Nicholas & Cumming, Steven & Stenhouse, Gordon, 2015. "Past-century decline in forest regeneration potential across a latitudinal and elevational gradient in Canada," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 313(C), pages 94-102.
    12. Imran Khaliq & Christian Rixen & Florian Zellweger & Catherine H. Graham & Martin M. Gossner & Ian R. McFadden & Laura Antão & Jakob Brodersen & Shyamolina Ghosh & Francesco Pomati & Ole Seehausen & T, 2024. "Warming underpins community turnover in temperate freshwater and terrestrial communities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    13. H. Oğuz Çoban & Ömer K. Örücü & E. Seda Arslan, 2020. "MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of Quercus libani Olivier," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, March.

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