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Changes in the phase of the annual cycle of surface temperature

Author

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  • A. R. Stine

    (University of California, Berkeley, California, 94720, USA)

  • P. Huybers

    (Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 02138, USA)

  • I. Y. Fung

    (University of California, Berkeley, California, 94720, USA)

Abstract

The annual cycle in the Earth’s surface temperature is extremely large—comparable in magnitude to the glacial–interglacial cycles over most of the planet. Trends in the phase and the amplitude of the annual cycle have been observed, but the causes and significance of these changes remain poorly understood—in part because we lack an understanding of the natural variability. Here we show that the phase of the annual cycle of surface temperature over extratropical land shifted towards earlier seasons by 1.7 days between 1954 and 2007; this change is highly anomalous with respect to earlier variations, which we interpret as being indicative of the natural range. Significant changes in the amplitude of the annual cycle are also observed between 1954 and 2007. These shifts in the annual cycles appear to be related, in part, to changes in the northern annular mode of climate variability, although the land phase shift is significantly larger than that predicted by trends in the northern annular mode alone. Few of the climate models presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reproduce the observed decrease in amplitude and none reproduce the shift towards earlier seasons.

Suggested Citation

  • A. R. Stine & P. Huybers & I. Y. Fung, 2009. "Changes in the phase of the annual cycle of surface temperature," Nature, Nature, vol. 457(7228), pages 435-440, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:457:y:2009:i:7228:d:10.1038_nature07675
    DOI: 10.1038/nature07675
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    Cited by:

    1. Weixiong Yan & Junfang Zhao & Jianping Li & Yunxia Wang, 2021. "Assessment of Seasonal Variability of Extreme Temperature in Mainland China under Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-19, November.
    2. Jajcay, Nikola, 2018. "Spatial and temporal scales of atmospheric dynamics," Thesis Commons ar8ks, Center for Open Science.
    3. Joshua S. North & Erin M. Schliep & Christopher K. Wikle, 2021. "On the spatial and temporal shift in the archetypal seasonal temperature cycle as driven by annual and semi‐annual harmonics," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), September.
    4. Torbjørn Lorentzen, 2020. "Climate change and winter road maintenance," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 225-242, July.
    5. Guttorp Peter, 2012. "Climate Statistics and Public Policy," Statistics, Politics and Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, March.
    6. Graciano Yumul & Carla Dimalanta & Nathaniel Servando & Nathaniel Cruz, 2013. "Abnormal weather events in 2009, increased precipitation and disastrous impacts in the Philippines," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 715-727, June.
    7. Xu Lian & Sujong Jeong & Chang-Eui Park & Hao Xu & Laurent Z. X. Li & Tao Wang & Pierre Gentine & Josep Peñuelas & Shilong Piao, 2022. "Biophysical impacts of northern vegetation changes on seasonal warming patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Tommaso Proietti & Eric Hillebrand, 2017. "Seasonal changes in central England temperatures," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(3), pages 769-791, June.
    9. Fernando Taboada & Ricardo Anadón, 2012. "Patterns of change in sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic during the last three decades: beyond mean trends," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(2), pages 419-431, November.
    10. R. Iestyn Woolway, 2023. "The pace of shifting seasons in lakes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    11. Stephen L Katz & Stephanie E Hampton & Lyubov R Izmest'eva & Marianne V Moore, 2011. "Influence of Long-Distance Climate Teleconnection on Seasonality of Water Temperature in the World's Largest Lake - Lake Baikal, Siberia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(2), pages 1-10, February.
    12. Fukai Liu & Fengfei Song & Yiyong Luo, 2024. "Human-induced intensified seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.

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