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Linking climate change to lemming cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Kyrre L. Kausrud

    (Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis,)

  • Atle Mysterud

    (Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis,)

  • Harald Steen

    (University of Oslo, PO Box 1066 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway
    Present address: Norwegian Polar Institute, N- 9296 Tromsø, Norway.)

  • Jon Olav Vik

    (Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis,)

  • Eivind Østbye

    (University of Oslo, PO Box 1066 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway)

  • Bernard Cazelles

    (CNRS UMR 7625, Ecole Normale Supérieure, 46 rue d’Ulm, 75230 Paris, France
    IRD GEODES, 32 Avenue Henri Varagnat, 93142 Bondy cedex, France)

  • Erik Framstad

    (Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Gaustadalleen 21, N-0349 Oslo, Norway)

  • Anne Maria Eikeset

    (Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis,)

  • Ivar Mysterud

    (University of Oslo, PO Box 1066 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway)

  • Torstein Solhøy

    (University of Bergen, Realfagbygget, Allegaten 41, N-5007 Bergen, Norway)

  • Nils Chr. Stenseth

    (Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis,)

Abstract

Falling lemming populations Norwegian lemmings (Lemmus lemmus) are well known for their population cycles, which are thought, at their peak, to influence other ecosystem components. In fact the role of the physical environment — climate included — in determining rodent cycle dynamics has remained largely a matter of conjecture. Now from a combination of long-term (1970–2007) data on rodent density, bird densities and field estimates of snow pack conditions together with meteorological data, a clearer picture of the lemming cycle has been obtained. What emerges is a marked shift away from the familiar 3–5-year rodent cycles to an aperiodic, mostly low-amplitude state, which can be explained and predicted by the between-year variations in winter climate. There is strong evidence for the hypothesis that climate effects on rodent dynamics are transmitted to other parts of the ecosystem.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyrre L. Kausrud & Atle Mysterud & Harald Steen & Jon Olav Vik & Eivind Østbye & Bernard Cazelles & Erik Framstad & Anne Maria Eikeset & Ivar Mysterud & Torstein Solhøy & Nils Chr. Stenseth, 2008. "Linking climate change to lemming cycles," Nature, Nature, vol. 456(7218), pages 93-97, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:456:y:2008:i:7218:d:10.1038_nature07442
    DOI: 10.1038/nature07442
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Zhibin & Yan, Chuan & Krebs, Charles J. & Stenseth, Nils Chr., 2015. "Ecological non-monotonicity and its effects on complexity and stability of populations, communities and ecosystems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 312(C), pages 374-384.
    2. Andreas Sundelöf & Valerio Bartolino & Mats Ulmestrand & Massimiliano Cardinale, 2013. "Multi-Annual Fluctuations in Reconstructed Historical Time-Series of a European Lobster (Homarus gammarus) Population Disappear at Increased Exploitation Levels," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(4), pages 1-10, April.
    3. Barraquand, Frédéric & New, Leslie F. & Redpath, Stephen & Matthiopoulos, Jason, 2015. "Indirect effects of primary prey population dynamics on alternative prey," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 44-59.
    4. Bani-Yaghoub, Majid & Reed, Aaron, 2018. "A methodology to quantify the long-term changes in social networks of competing species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 368(C), pages 147-157.
    5. Matvey Kulakov & Efim Frisman, 2023. "Clustering Synchronization in a Model of the 2D Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of an Age-Structured Population with Long-Range Interactions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-21, April.
    6. Michael Neuman & Lorenzo Chelleri & Thorsten Schuetze, 2021. "Post-Pandemic Urbanism: Criteria for a New Normal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-6, September.
    7. Wang, Guiming & Getz, Lowell L. & Linzey, Alicia V. & Slade, Norman A. & Kesner, Michael H., 2012. "Fast and slow dynamics of northern small mammal populations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 95-102.
    8. Oksana Revutskaya & Galina Neverova & Oksana Zhdanova & Efim Frisman, 2023. "The Evolutionary Dynamics of a Sex-Structured Population with Non-Overlapping Generations," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-24, December.

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