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Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Katia Koelle

    (University of Michigan)

  • Xavier Rodó

    (University of Barcelona)

  • Mercedes Pascual

    (University of Michigan)

  • Md. Yunus

    (International Center for Diarrhoeal Disease Research)

  • Golam Mostafa

    (International Center for Diarrhoeal Disease Research)

Abstract

Cholera: rain check A new study provides the first quantitative data to support the long-standing hypothesis that rainfall influences cholera patterns. There is evidence for a role of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the literature, but no analysis had properly taken into account the nonlinear dynamics of disease. The new study shows that rainfall and the ENSO do increase cholera transmission, but that the effect is much smaller in populations where susceptibility levels are low due to the buildup of ‘herd immunity’ following previous outbreaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Katia Koelle & Xavier Rodó & Mercedes Pascual & Md. Yunus & Golam Mostafa, 2005. "Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics," Nature, Nature, vol. 436(7051), pages 696-700, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:436:y:2005:i:7051:d:10.1038_nature03820
    DOI: 10.1038/nature03820
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Margherita Grasso & Matteo Manera & Aline Chiabai & Anil Markandya, 2012. "The Health Effects of Climate Change: A Survey of Recent Quantitative Research," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-25, April.
    2. Pamela P Martinez & Robert C Reiner Jr. & Benjamin A Cash & Xavier Rodó & Mohammad Shahjahan Mondal & Manojit Roy & Mohammad Yunus & A S G Faruque & Sayeeda Huq & Aaron A King & Mercedes Pascual, 2017. "Cholera forecast for Dhaka, Bangladesh, with the 2015-2016 El Niño: Lessons learned," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(3), pages 1-12, March.
    3. Adeboyejo Aina Thompson & Lirvhuwani Matamale & Shonisani Danisa Kharidza, 2012. "Impact of Climate Change on Children’s Health in Limpopo Province, South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-24, March.
    4. Pearce, Joshua M. & Johnson, Sara J. & Grant, Gabriel B., 2007. "3D-mapping optimization of embodied energy of transportation," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 435-453.
    5. Min Xu & Chunxiang Cao & Duochun Wang & Biao Kan, 2014. "Identifying Environmental Risk Factors of Cholera in a Coastal Area with Geospatial Technologies," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Maile T Phillips & Katharine A Owers & Bryan T Grenfell & Virginia E Pitzer, 2020. "Changes in historical typhoid transmission across 16 U.S. cities, 1889-1931: Quantifying the impact of investments in water and sewer infrastructures," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-22, March.
    7. Sara L. M. Trærup & Ramon A. Ortiz & Anil Markandya, 2011. "The Costs of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-20, November.
    8. Chengcheng Bei & Shiping Liu & Yin Liao & Gaoliang Tian & Zichen Tian, 2021. "Predicting new cases of COVID‐19 and the application to population sustainability analysis," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4859-4884, September.
    9. Rachel E. Baker & Ayesha S. Mahmud & C. Jessica E. Metcalf, 2018. "Dynamic response of airborne infections to climate change: predictions for varicella," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(4), pages 547-560, June.
    10. Stephen Tennenbaum & Caroline Freitag & Svetlana Roudenko, 2014. "Modeling the Influence of Environment and Intervention onCholera in Haiti," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-36, September.
    11. Basilua Andre Muzembo & Kei Kitahara & Anusuya Debnath & Ayumu Ohno & Keinosuke Okamoto & Shin-Ichi Miyoshi, 2022. "Cholera Outbreaks in India, 2011–2020: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-27, May.
    12. Wang, Jinliang & Wu, Wenjing & Kuniya, Toshikazu, 2023. "Global threshold analysis on a diffusive host–pathogen model with hyperinfectivity and nonlinear incidence functions," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 767-802.

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