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Host immunity and synchronized epidemics of syphilis across the United States

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  • Nicholas C. Grassly

    (Imperial College London)

  • Christophe Fraser

    (Imperial College London)

  • Geoffrey P. Garnett

    (Imperial College London)

Abstract

Syphilis cycles in the US Repeated epidemics of syphilis across the United States during the past 50 years have followed a roughly ten-year cycle. These fluctuations have been attributed to changes in sexual behaviour, but a new analysis, based on case report data collected from 68 cities since 1941, suggests that they are natural oscillations in disease incidence linked to host immunity. The increasing synchronicity of epidemics among US cities is evidence for an increasingly connected sexual network: current synchronized syphilis outbreaks may be due to a build-up of non-immune individuals rather than a return to unsafe sexual behaviour. On the cover, the syphilis pathogen Treponema pallidum in a coloured transmission electron micrograph, x16,000 approx. (Alfred Pasieka/ Science Photo Library).

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas C. Grassly & Christophe Fraser & Geoffrey P. Garnett, 2005. "Host immunity and synchronized epidemics of syphilis across the United States," Nature, Nature, vol. 433(7024), pages 417-421, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:433:y:2005:i:7024:d:10.1038_nature03072
    DOI: 10.1038/nature03072
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    Cited by:

    1. Aadland David & Finnoff David C. & Huang Kevin X.D., 2013. "Syphilis Cycles," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 297-348, June.
    2. Eugenio Valdano & Davide Colombi & Chiara Poletto & Vittoria Colizza, 2023. "Epidemic graph diagrams as analytics for epidemic control in the data-rich era," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Rodney P. Jones, 2019. "The calendar year fallacy: The danger of reliance on calendar year data in end‐of‐life capacity and financial planning," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 1533-1543, October.
    4. Martial L Ndeffo Mbah & Christopher A Gilligan, 2011. "Resource Allocation for Epidemic Control in Metapopulations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(9), pages 1-10, September.
    5. Lora Billings & Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero & Brandon Lindley & Ira B Schwartz, 2013. "Intervention-Based Stochastic Disease Eradication," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(8), pages 1-9, August.
    6. David Aadland & David Finnoff & Kevin X. D. Huang, 2016. "Behavioral Origins of Epidemiological Bifurcations," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 16-00004, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    7. David Aadland & David Finnoff & Kevin x.d. Huang, 2013. "The Equilibrium Dynamics of Economic Epidemiology," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 13-00003, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    8. Chryssi Giannitsarou & Stephen Kissler & Flavio Toxvaerd, 2021. "Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 321-338, September.

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